It is but a finger

On fracture and futility

Hassan Rehman

These miscreants never learn. Baton-charged by police, beaten up by Jamiat members, slapped around by security guards at Punjab College, tortured by the Lord Mayor’s goons, they go on indulging in politically incorrect activities.

The point today is that it’s only a finger, nothing more – so no mourning please (we are not of those who indulge in exercises innately futile).

But who told the activists (the “prig-est” of us all??) that Musharraf would shower flower petals on them when they walked on Constitution Avenue for the restoration of the free judiciary? Or that the Police would offer them fruit and juices when they tried to go to the house of detained Chief Justice? Or that the Frontier Constabulary would garland them for their self-righteousness?

Point: if the finger has been fractured, it is solely the fault of the activist. If he was anxious about something, that apparently so few in this country consider wrong, he should have sent an email to his colleagues, or, for that matter, sent an SMS to his friends, or, if the anxiety taxed him beyond endurance, published an article in a newspaper – why take to the ROADS? Jahil qaum. Bloody fool.

Didn’t he read what Ghalib so presciently declared more than a century ago? ‘Jisko ho jaan-o-dil azeez, uski gali may jayay kyoon?’

And that was just one point.

- Maybe he was a CIA agent – trying to destabilize Pakistan (for which he and his fellow activists were baton-charged)
- Maybe he was a zealot produced by some Madressah – trying to spread hatred (for which he and his fellow activists were suffered tear-gas)
- Maybe he and his fellow activists were yahoodi agents, planted to defame Islam (that’s why the Police did not disclose the location of the lock-up where they were kept, lest their friends manage to provide them food and blankets)
- Maybe he was a miscreant, who earned impressive grades from UET and taught at FAST later, only to disguise his real motive – destroying Pakistan (for which he and his fellow activists were dragged on the road leading to the residence of detained Chief Justice)
- Maybe he was some lunatic escaped from a mental hospital – and was a danger for law and order (that’s why his finger was fractured)And that was just one angle.

Had he got an iota of sense,

- He should have waited till millions came on to the roads to protest (why go NOW when there are so few incensed by the rout of the judiciary?)
- He should have struggled to make the people ‘naik’ and ‘saleh’. When people become naik, society gets better – and no Jurnail would then dare to slaughter the Constitution. And – lest the non-believers are confused – it is the ONLY road to salvation.
- He should have gone to a psychiatrist, if what gets reported on newspapers and TV channels these months was making him incensed, agitated and restless.

Verdict: It’s only a finger, and it’s he who is solely responsible for its fracture.

Suggestion: The State together with the sane members of the society should get his remaining bones insured, since these miscreants (euphemism: activists) never learn.

IRI: Details of Latest Survey

Three Crises: Economic, Political and Security

The most significant event since IRI’s last poll was the assassination of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Chairperson and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Its impact on the political landscape has been significant, both as a setback to President Pervez Musharraf as well as a boost to her party’s numbers.

When asked if they felt that Bhutto’s death had weakened the federation, 93 percent agreed. Pakistanis also blamed the government for her death; 62 percent cited it as responsible for her assassination while only 13 percent blamed Al-Qaeda. This indicates a collapse in the government’s credibility among its citizens.

Pakistan is also facing economic difficulties; 94 percent agreed that the shortages of wheat, petrol and electricity were serious problems. These bread and butter issues remain the top concern in the minds of Pakistani voters. When presented with a number of issues and asked to select the most important in determining which party they would vote for, 77 percent chose an economy-related issue (inflation, unemployment, poverty and development). Inflation was the top issue, having been selected by 55 percent of the respondents.

Voters also indicated a rising concern about their economic well-being. Also important to voters, is the declining sense of security. Voters expressed concern regarding rising Islamic fundamentalism; 73 percent agreed that religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan. Further, 65 percent said that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda operating in the country is also a serious concern. However, only 33 percent of Pakistanis supported the Army fighting extremists in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and tribal areas and just nine percent felt that Pakistan should cooperate with the United States in its war on terror.

Social Indicators

Over the past year IRI polling has tracked a number of indicators in order to gauge the overall mood of the population. In February’s poll, these indicators hit all-time highs of pessimism, while optimism dropped to all-time lows.

∙ When asked about the direction that the country was headed, an all-time high of 84 percent said it was headed in the wrong direction while an all-time low of 15 percent said in the right direction; this represents a 14 point increase in the wrong direction number and an 11 point drop in the right direction number.

∙ When asked if their personal economic situation improved or worsened in the past year, 13 percent said improved, 72 percent said worsened and 14 percent said that it stayed the same. Again, these numbers represent all-time highs and lows. (more)

IRI Pakistan Index – Page Two

∙ When asked if they thought that their personal economic situation would improve or worsen over the course of the next year, 20 percent of those interviewed said improve, 48 percent said worsen and 20 percent said stay the same. The 48 percent who responded that their economic condition would worsen represents a 15 point increase since the last poll. Nearly half of the population is pessimistic about their economic future, and economic issues are front and center in the minds of voters.

∙ The worsening security environment has resulted in higher levels of insecurity; when asked if they felt more secure this year than they did last year, 12 percent said yes and 85 percent said no. This is a 19 point increase in the number of people saying they felt less secure since IRI’s last poll.

Leadership Ratings

President Musharraf’s political position has severely eroded, with his popularity and approval ratings falling to all-time lows. Since the last poll, he has made a number of moves that should have improved his position, including the ending of the state of emergency, resigning as Army Chief of Staff, assuming office as a civilian president and declaring elections. Whatever bounce he might have received from these actions disappeared in the wake of Bhutto’s assassination, the declining security situation and the worsening economy.

∙ The vast majority of Pakistanis want Musharraf out of office, with 75 percent wanting his resignation and 16 percent opposed; six percent replied maybe. The number calling for his resignation has increased eight points from the last poll.

∙ Musharraf’s job approval rating has hit a new low, with 15 percent saying they approved of the job he was doing and 72 percent saying they disapproved. His approval rating has been cut in half since the last poll, when it was at 30 percent.

∙ Musharraf’s overall popularity has also dropped, with only 16 percent saying they liked him; the number saying they liked him has declined by 12 points since the last survey.

∙ When Pakistanis were asked which one leader was the best person to handle the country’s problems, only eight percent named him this time around; this is a drop of 15 points since the last poll.

∙ When asked how they would feel about the future of the country if Musharraf resigned, 62 percent of the respondents said very good and another 17 percent said good, for a combined 79 percent. (more)

IRI Pakistan Index – Page Three

∙ The political and economic crises have also impacted the government’s ratings. When asked how the government performed on issues most important to them, 18 percent rated the government positively and 80 percent did not; 52 percent rated the government’s performance in the most negative category of very poor. When asked if the ruling coalition had done a good enough job to deserve re-election, 29 percent said yes and 62 percent said no. In the wake of Bhutto’s death, there is a leadership vacuum. For the time being, PPP vice-chair Makhdom Amin Fahim is filling that void. However, Bhutto’s husband and current party co-chair Asif Zardari and their son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari both have ratings that make them among the most popular in the country.

∙ When asked who they would prefer to lead PPP until Bilawal Bhutto Zardari comes of age, 66 percent chose Makhdom Amin Fahim. Fahim was also the choice of 77 percent to be PPP’s candidate for prime minister.

∙ When asked if they liked or disliked various political personalities, 66 percent said they liked Makhdom Amim Fahim, 55 percent said they liked Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and 37 percent said they liked Zardari. Jailed lawyer Aitzaz Ahsan was liked by 37 percent as well, an increase of 24 percent since the last survey.

Previous IRI polls asked voters to choose the one person they believed could best handle the problems facing Pakistan. In the February survey, this question was open-ended in an attempt to ascertain which leaders were first and foremost in the minds of Pakistanis.

∙ Makhdom Amin Fahim led the field with 32 percent with Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Chair Nawaz Sharif coming in second at 23 percent. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (14 percent), Musharraf (eight percent), and former Chief Minister of Punjab Pervez Elahi (five percent) rounded out the top five.

∙ In a province-by-province match-up, Nawaz Sharif led the field in Punjab with 31 percent and Makhdom Amin Fahim was number one in Sindh with 57 percent. Nawaz Sharif led in the NWFP with 27 percent, while Bilawal (24 percent) and Makhdom Amin Fahim (20 percent) were first and second in Balochistan.

Elections

As mentioned before, Bhutto’s death greatly impacted the political landscape. Nowhere is that more apparent than in questions about the upcoming elections. Her PPP is currently benefiting from both a wave of sympathy as well as a backlash against the government. (more)

IRI Pakistan Index – Page Four

∙ Interest in the elections remains high. When asked if they were planning on voting, 90 percent of respondents said that they were either very or somewhat likely to vote.

∙ When asked if they supported the delay in the elections from its original date to February 18, Pakistanis were surprisingly split, with 51 percent saying that they supported the delay while 43 percent opposed.

∙ However, when they asked why they thought the elections had been delayed, 57 percent said that it was because Musharraf feared that Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) would not win, while 39 percent said that it was due to legitimate security concerns.

∙ When asked if they would support a postponement of the elections for up to one year, voters were overwhelmingly opposed: 85 percent said they would oppose such a postponement. The idea of President Musharraf resigning and the elections being held under a unity government had the support of 69 percent.

∙ When asked which party they would vote for, PPP topped the field, garnering 50 percent in the national sample. PML-N was second with 22 percent and PML-Q came in third with 14 percent.

∙ PPP’s wave carried through all of the provinces: in Punjab, PPP led with 44 percent, with PML-N in second at 32 percent and PML-Q a distant third with 19 percent; in Sindh, PPP far outdistanced the field with 74 percent; in NWFP, PPP led with 37 percent, PML-N came in second with 18 percent, and Awami National Party (ANP) in third with 12 percent; in Balochistan, PPP garnered 44 percent, with PML-Q a distant second with 15 percent.
∙ Regardless of the actual outcome, Pakistanis have already made up their minds that PML-Q should not win. When asked which party would win the most seats if the elections were free and fair, 58 percent responded PPP, 22 percent said PML-N and 13 percent said PML-Q. Further, when asked if they would think that the election was free and fair or rigged in the event that PML-Q was announce to have won the most seats, 79 percent said that they would think that the election was rigged. And when asked if they would support protests against the government in the event that PML-Q was announced as the winner, 55 percent replied yes, indicating a potential for post-election turmoil should that event occur.

The Next Government

IRI’s survey also probed different configurations of the next government. With a hung parliament (no party having a clear majority of seats) being a real possibility, it will likely require a partnership of two or more parties in order to form a ruling coalition. (more)

IRI Pakistan Index – Page Five

∙ When asked if they preferred the Mutehida Qaumi Movement (MQM) to remain partnered with PML-Q or join PPP and PML-N, 58 percent replied PPP/PML-N while 25 percent replied PML-Q.

∙ IRI’s poll also tested potential ruling coalition partnerships. When asked to choose their preference of three potential match-ups, a PML-Q/PML-N coalition received the support of nine percent, while PPP/PML-Q was the choice of 11 percent. Far out in front was a hypothetical PPP/PML-N ruling coalition, with 72 percent selecting it as their choice. PPP voters preferred the PML-N partnership with 89 percent; likewise, PML-N voters preferred the PPP partnership with 88 percent support; PML-Q voters preferred their party partner with PPP (51 percent) rather than PML-N (37 percent).

∙ When asked to choose their top choice for prime minister, 56 percent opted for PPP’s Makhdom Amin Fahim, while 15 percent chose PML-N’s Javed Hashmi and 12 percent supported PML-Q’s Pervez Elahi.

The Army

The Pakistan Army has long been the most respected institution in the country; in IRI’s first few polls its favorability rating was consistently at the 80 percent level. In the last poll, however, the Army’s rating dropped to 55 percent. In IRI’s February poll, the Army has rebounded somewhat to 65 percent.

When Pakistanis were asked if the performance of Musharraf affected their opinion of the Army, 57 percent said that Musharraf’s performance caused them to now have a lower opinion of the Army. This 57 percent represents an increase of 16 points since the last survey, when only 41 percent said that his actions had resulted in a lower opinion of the Army. The fact that the Army’s overall approval rating has risen by 10 points since the last survey could be a result of Musharraf’s resignation as Army Chief and the assumption of the role by General Pervez Kiyani. When asked if they liked or disliked various personalities, 25 percent said they liked the new Army Chief; this is an increase of 20 percent since the last survey.

Finally, respondents expressed a desire for the separation of military and state; 69 percent agreed that the Army should not play a role in civilian government.

Pakistan Judges Remain Under Arrest Before Election

New York, NY, USA, 9 February 2008 (InformPress.com) - The continueddetention of independent judges, the recent re-arrests of lawyers on spurious grounds and the large-scale induction of Pervez Musharraf's appointees into Pakistan's judiciary will have a serious impact on the credibility of the national elections scheduled for February 18, [2008], Human Rights Watch [HRW] said today.
Under Pakistani law, the Supreme Court is the final arbiter over any claims of election irregularities and controversies. Judicial review of the decisions of the Election Commission can be sought in the High Court and the Supreme Court of Pakistan.
"Days before Pakistan goes to the polls, its lawful Chief Justice [Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry] and his children remain under illegal house arrest, as do many lawyers who would likely challenge election-rigging in the courts," said Brad Adams, Asia Director at Human RightsWatch. "Musharraf's systematic destruction of legal institutions has seriously compromised the upcoming elections."
Since November 3, [2007], deposed Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, his family and five other Supreme Court justices who also refused to accept Musharraf's suspension of the Constitutionand declaration of a state of Emergency have remained under illegal house arrest. Judges at other levels of the judiciary were also deposed and repeatedly face arbitrary detention. Meanwhile, Musharraf has replaced dozens of arbitrarily fired judges with his own nominees.
Leaders of the lawyers' movement - including Supreme Court Bar Association [SCBA] President Aitzaz Ahsan, retired Justice Tariq Mehmood and former Bar Council Vice Chairman Ali Ahmed Kurd - were detained under the colonial-era Maintenance of Public Order Ordinance(MPO). They remain under house arrest. The Pakistani Constitution prohibits detention under the MPO for more than 90 days. The government released them on January 31 [2008] on expiry of that period, but arbitrarily re-arrested them 48 hours later under a fresh MPO order.
"The re-arrest of these lawyers is a disgrace and makes it clear that Musharraf is determined to ensure that many of his fiercest critics are locked up before the election," said Adams. "Musharraf must release the lawyers and judges immediately."
In 2007, the movement of lawyers and the growing independence of the nation's judiciary had made genuine progress in putting Pakistan back on the path to the rule of law and raised hopes for a free election, Human Rights Watch said. That ended when Musharraf announced his state of Emergency on November 3 [2007].
Under the revised Constitution, unilaterally imposed by Musharraf, the government now has powers to disbar lawyers involved in peaceful anti-government activities, and the military can now try civilians for awide range of offenses previously under the purview of the country's judiciary, including charges as vague as causing "public mischief."
Human Rights Watch noted that such a repressive political environment thwarts any possibility that elections, scheduled for February 18,[2008], could be free or fair.
"The government has warned it will not tolerate the 'politics of agitation'," said Adams. "Such restrictions are contrary to human rights law at the best of times and absolutely unacceptable in the middle of an election."
Rigging in successive elections by the Pakistani military has been well-documented. The emergence of an independent judiciary in Pakistan last year provided the best hope in decades for a fair election. But the dismantling of that judiciary shows Musharraf's bad faith in the months before these elections.
"A real election campaign is impossible when a country's military government deposes the legitimate judiciary, replaces lawful judgeswith its hand-picked supporters and keeps its chief critics under arrest," said Adams.
Human Rights Watch criticized the United States and the United Kingdom, which consider Musharraf an indispensable ally in the "war of terror," for failing to press for the restoration of the independent judiciary headed by Chief Justice Chaudhry. Both countries should urge the immediate release of all persons arbitrarily detained and a returnto genuine constitutional rule in Pakistan.
"In other parts of the world, the U.S. and UK wax eloquently about the need for an independent judiciary and pressure governments to respect this principle," said Adams. "Yet [U.S.] President [George W.] Bushand [UK] Prime Minister [Gordon] Brown seem to have a double standard where Musharraf is concerned."

Pakistan Judges Remain Under Arrest Before Election

New York, NY, USA, 9 February 2008 (InformPress.com) - The continueddetention of independent judges, the recent re-arrests of lawyers on spurious grounds and the large-scale induction of Pervez Musharraf's appointees into Pakistan's judiciary will have a serious impact on the credibility of the national elections scheduled for February 18, [2008], Human Rights Watch [HRW] said today.
Under Pakistani law, the Supreme Court is the final arbiter over any claims of election irregularities and controversies. Judicial review of the decisions of the Election Commission can be sought in the High Court and the Supreme Court of Pakistan.
"Days before Pakistan goes to the polls, its lawful Chief Justice [Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry] and his children remain under illegal house arrest, as do many lawyers who would likely challenge election-rigging in the courts," said Brad Adams, Asia Director at Human RightsWatch. "Musharraf's systematic destruction of legal institutions has seriously compromised the upcoming elections."
Since November 3, [2007], deposed Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, his family and five other Supreme Court justices who also refused to accept Musharraf's suspension of the Constitutionand declaration of a state of Emergency have remained under illegal house arrest. Judges at other levels of the judiciary were also deposed and repeatedly face arbitrary detention. Meanwhile, Musharraf has replaced dozens of arbitrarily fired judges with his own nominees.
Leaders of the lawyers' movement - including Supreme Court Bar Association [SCBA] President Aitzaz Ahsan, retired Justice Tariq Mehmood and former Bar Council Vice Chairman Ali Ahmed Kurd - were detained under the colonial-era Maintenance of Public Order Ordinance(MPO). They remain under house arrest. The Pakistani Constitution prohibits detention under the MPO for more than 90 days. The government released them on January 31 [2008] on expiry of that period, but arbitrarily re-arrested them 48 hours later under a fresh MPO order.
"The re-arrest of these lawyers is a disgrace and makes it clear that Musharraf is determined to ensure that many of his fiercest critics are locked up before the election," said Adams. "Musharraf must release the lawyers and judges immediately."
In 2007, the movement of lawyers and the growing independence of the nation's judiciary had made genuine progress in putting Pakistan back on the path to the rule of law and raised hopes for a free election, Human Rights Watch said. That ended when Musharraf announced his state of Emergency on November 3 [2007].
Under the revised Constitution, unilaterally imposed by Musharraf, the government now has powers to disbar lawyers involved in peaceful anti-government activities, and the military can now try civilians for awide range of offenses previously under the purview of the country's judiciary, including charges as vague as causing "public mischief."
Human Rights Watch noted that such a repressive political environment thwarts any possibility that elections, scheduled for February 18,[2008], could be free or fair.
"The government has warned it will not tolerate the 'politics of agitation'," said Adams. "Such restrictions are contrary to human rights law at the best of times and absolutely unacceptable in the middle of an election."
Rigging in successive elections by the Pakistani military has been well-documented. The emergence of an independent judiciary in Pakistan last year provided the best hope in decades for a fair election. But the dismantling of that judiciary shows Musharraf's bad faith in the months before these elections.
"A real election campaign is impossible when a country's military government deposes the legitimate judiciary, replaces lawful judgeswith its hand-picked supporters and keeps its chief critics under arrest," said Adams.
Human Rights Watch criticized the United States and the United Kingdom, which consider Musharraf an indispensable ally in the "war of terror," for failing to press for the restoration of the independent judiciary headed by Chief Justice Chaudhry. Both countries should urge the immediate release of all persons arbitrarily detained and a returnto genuine constitutional rule in Pakistan.
"In other parts of the world, the U.S. and UK wax eloquently about the need for an independent judiciary and pressure governments to respect this principle," said Adams. "Yet [U.S.] President [George W.] Bushand [UK] Prime Minister [Gordon] Brown seem to have a double standard where Musharraf is concerned."

Pakistan: Election Commission Not Impartial

Electoral Machinery Controlled by Musharraf Appointees

(New York, February 12, 2008) – The failure of Pakistan's Election Commission to act on allegations of irregularities means the electoral machinery for national elections due on February 18, 2008 cannot be considered impartial, Human Rights Watch said today. The structure of the commission, which has wide powers to investigate complaints and take action, also suggests it will not rule fairly in the election.

Since the official election period commenced in November 2007, the Election Commission of Pakistan has ignored allegations of widespread irregularities, including arrests and harassment of opposition candidates and party members, and the misuse of state resources, administration and state machinery to the advantage of candidates backed by President Pervez Musharraf.

"There have been numerous complaints of improper government assistance to the ruling party and illegal interference with opposition activities," said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. "But the election commission has done nothing significant to address these problems, raising serious questions about its impartiality."

Human Rights Watch said that the Election Commission has taken virtually no action on the widespread harassment of opposition candidates through the registration of police cases against them, police obstruction of opposition rallies, and the removal of lawful opposition banners and billboards.

Human Rights Watch has documented the involvement of the local administration in helping Musharraf-backed candidates, particularly in Punjab and Sindh provinces. For example:
In Lahore, the capital of Punjab province, the police have illegally put up banners and posters for the Musharraf-backed Pakistan Muslim League-(Q) (PML-Q) and torn down the electoral symbols of the opposition.
On December 10, 2007, a television cameraman in Gahno Khose, Sindh province, who filmed police providing illegal assistance to the district mayor, deputy mayor, town police officer, executive district officer and caretaker ministers during an electoral campaign told Human Rights Watch that the mayor's men snatched his camera and warned him against broadcasting the report. Police then threatened to lodge criminal cases against him. "I was afraid and informed my organization. They told me to keep quiet and took on the responsibility of talking to the concerned people," he said. "They didn't lodge [a criminal case] against me, but I am receiving further threats."
On December 26, 2007, police in Gujrat city, Punjab, prevented opposition Pakistan Muslim League-(N) (PML-N) candidates from preparing for a reception for their leader Nawaz Sharif, citing oral "orders from above." Municipal administration staff overnight removed PML-N banners around the city. Police prevented the PML-N's Gujrat youth wing from announcing Sharif's arrival, confiscated their loudspeakers and detained six activists for several hours. Chaudhry Mohammad Faraz, the PML-N general secretary in Gujrat, told Human Rights Watch, "Police blocked all roads leading to the venue to stop people from welcoming Nawaz Sharif, from Jalalpur Jattan, Fatehpur, Shadiwal, Kunja and Bhimber. People had to come on foot, one by one."
On the night of December 20, 2007, unknown persons fired upon the PML-N office set up in the residence of Muhammad Afzal at Mohallah Kaloo Pura, Gujrat, after an anonymous telephone call telling Afzal to close the office down. Police did not collect evidence or register a complaint.
In Thatta district, Sindh province, police have been obstructing the opposition Pakistan People's Party (PPP) by not giving security clearance to its candidates to hold public meetings. The PPP's Sassui Palijo, the only directly elected opposition party member in Thatta district, told Human Rights Watch that the administration has been interfering in their campaigns since the previous local bodies' elections. "Now they are doing it again. They remove flags, banners after our party workers put them up. … We tell the election commission everything and show them evidence every three days. But they have done nothing to help us at all so far." Palijo said that a PPP worker, Nawaz Ali Shah Qudusani, had to "go underground" after he went ahead with a rally that the local mayor had warned him against holding; police raided his house and arrested three people.
In its update of February 9, the Fair and Free Election Network (FAFEN), an independent coalition of nongovernmental organizations with observers in more than 260 districts around the country, said that one of the most frequent complaints they have received is of "police harassing candidates and/or workers of certain political parties by threatening that they will register cases against them. In addition, police are asking supporters and candidates of political parties who formed the opposition during the previous government to stop campaigning. In some cases, FAFEN observers reported that police had directly asked candidates and local government representatives to announce their support to the [Musharraf-backed] PML-Q." Observers from FAFEN have gathered reports of intimidation and harassment by the police or other security agency districts in all provinces.

Extensive government transfers and postings of judges and other officials across the country violate legal provisions banning postings and transfers after the announcement of the election schedule, which took place on November 20, 2007. The Election Commission has failed to stop or reverse transfers of district judges; the government has put in place judges who independent observers fear could compromise investigations into electoral malpractice. The government appointed 59 civil judges in early January across the North West Frontier Province. Eleven civil judges were transferred. As well as investigating complaints, district judges are also responsible for aggregating the vote count on polling day.

In addition, Human Rights Watch has records of at least 90 transfers of officials in Sindh province. After the announcement of the election schedule, several police officers were transferred across Sindh. Some were posted as station house officers (SHOs) to police stations of Kharipur district in Sindh. When the assistant election commissioner (AEC) in Jacobabad, Sindh, Liaquat Ali Afridi, refused to change polling procedures or reduce the number of polling stations from 259 to 226, he was transferred and replaced with Hisaam Soomro, a relative of the caretaker prime minister in Sindh.

Candidates have sent in more than 1,500 complaints of irregularities from around the country, few of which have been investigated. Even visible violations, like the use of electoral banners on government offices, have been ignored. The secretary of the Election Commission of Pakistan, Kunwar Dilshad, denied responsibility, telling Human Rights Watch that the commission, which is dependent on the district-level judiciary to investigate these complaints, is helpless to investigate or act if judges send no evidence.

The Election Commission's lack of independence and impartiality is among the crucial structural issues impeding free and fair elections. The president currently appoints the chief election commissioner and the other commission members. The election law requires members of the Election Commission, an ad hoc body, to be High Court judges; their part-time status in the Election Commission compromises their effectiveness. Two were appointed after Musharraf imposed a state of emergency on November 3, calling into question their impartiality. For example, Justice Ghulam Dastagir Shahani, a lawyer with no judicial experience, was appointed to the Sindh High Court on December 14 and to the Election Commission on January 5, by Musharraf, although more experienced judges were available. The current chief election commissioner, Qazi Muhammad Farooq, a retired Supreme Court judge, called his impartiality into question when he amended the rules of the presidential polls of October 2007 to allow Musharraf to contest the election while still army chief, in violation of a clear constitutional prohibition.

The Election Commission has ignored recommendations made by international observers, including the European Union, such as changing the method of appointment of the chief election commissioner and other members to ensure their impartiality. A key recommendation from international election monitors in past elections relates to the vote count aggregation and delays in announcement between results at polling stations and the final result. Problems identified in the past have included the provision of results at polling stations on unofficial papers. Transparency would be greatly improved if certified copies of each polling station result (compiled on form XVI) and aggregated results (compiled on form XVII) were made immediately available to the media, candidates, polling agents, and observers.

Under Pakistani law, the president cannot hold a party political affiliation and is obliged to be neutral in parliamentary elections. In the past, the presidency has been a largely ceremonial post and seen as "above" party politics. But, since taking power in a coup in 1999, Musharraf has radically changed the constitution to increase the powers of the presidency at the expense of parliamentary powers, at the same time creating and supporting a political party, thePML-Q, to serve his interests.

While Musharraf maintains that he has installed a neutral caretaker government to oversee elections, he has openly supported the PML-Q and its allied parties, and formed a caretaker government filled with PML-Q office-bearers and members. On December 17 Musharraf asked participants at a public meeting in Vehari town in southern Punjab to vote for parties that support him. Billboards in the central city of Lahore and elsewhere in Punjab province advertising development projects carry Musharraf's photograph as well as that of outgoing chief minister Parvaiz Elahi, Punjab, provincial president of the PML-Q.

Prime Minister Mianmohammad Soomro, Information and Broadcasting Minister Nisar Memon and Federal Minister for Inter-Provincial Coordination, Dr. Muhammad Amjad, are prominent members of the PML-Q. Roshan Khurshid Bharucha, another PML-Q member, is not only a minister in the Balochistan provincial caretaker government, but is also running as a candidate, violating election rules that prohibit members of the caretaker government at the national and provincial level from contesting elections.

"The Election Commission should be quickly investigating all credible allegations of electoral irregularities, whether they relate to violence or misuse of state resources," said Adams. "Instead of using its legal powers and moral authority to address these matters, the commission appears to be sitting on its hands."

AP Report on Charsadda blast and Islamabad battlefield

Video of the Sunday Battle in Islamabad

An eyewitness account of the brutalities at the isb protest

Sundas

"It's just a rock, I'm fine. Don't worry." I said to my friend standing next to me, blinking from the pain, as a broken piece of a brick hit me square in my shin. We were at the capital of our country, trying to reach the house of our Chief Justice held captive by a brutal dictator. The extent of his brutality, we were just beginning to get a taste of.

This was a procession of over 1500 lawyers, students, civil society members, gathered to protest against the blatant usurpation of our judicial institution, our media, as well as our fundamental rights. There were around 150 of us who had come from Lahore to join in today's protest. Marching on to the judge's enclave, we were chanting slogans, singing songs "na mera Pakistan hay, na tera Pakistan hay; yeh uska Pakistan hay jo sadr-e-pakistan hay…" [This not my Pakistan, this is not your Pakistan; this is that person's Pakistan, who calls himself the president of Pakistan…] followed by proclamations of our struggle to get our country back. "Freedom is ours, if you don't give it to us upon asking we will take it..." Wherever you looked, you saw people who had come together, united to fight for the collective good. Stating it was enough, we will no longer be silenced. We will no longer hold back, or bow our heads low.

What for many in Islamabad had become common at protests, for us from Lahore was a first. The treatment meted to us from the police in our city is worlds apart. The recognition that the police itself is oppressed and exploited is adamant amongst the students of Lahore. A suo moto notice had to be issued by a pco-judge in Lahore to get the police to arrest us-the students. The police here was something else.

I was towards the front of the procession, when we saw smoke, and ran backwards thinking it was tear gas. Soon we realized it was fire trucks positioned to hose down protestors with cold water in this chilly weather. They kept hitting us with cold, high pressure water in vain. When it became evident that we would keep going nevertheless, the police started shelling us with tear gas. Most of us smelled CS gas for the first time as we ran backwards experiencing its excruciating effects. A friend had held my hand and almost dragged me along as we ran backwards. Don't breathe. Don't fall. Don't stop. I kept repeating to myself as my throat, eyes, and nose lit on fire. I ran as far back as possible. The spoiled, protected and sheltered girl that I was, nothing even close to this viciousness had touched me before.

It was a surreal feeling as I stood on the very periphery, panting through my scratched throat and rubbing my burning eyes. This was only the beginning. I saw people coming back, drenched. Saw an Auntie who had fallen in a puddle. Saw a girl about my age screaming at the top of her lungs at the police meant to protect us, the people. I found myself craving to be up there, at the front, with my fellows, facing the onslaught. I did not come here as an audience to watch the show from the sidelines, a voice from deep within asserted. And I advanced. Whilst screaming GO MUSHARRAF GO at the top of my lungs. Who was where, who was who; nothing mattered.

While everyone was trying to regroup, some other girls and I started chanting louder than we had ever known our voices to reach, "LATHI GOLI KI SARKAAR, NAHI CHALAY GI NAHI CHALAY GI; YEH DEHSHET GARDI KI SARKAAR, NAHI CHALAY GI NAHI CHALAY GI" [this government of brute force and coercion, we do not accept we do not accept; this terrorist government, we do not accept we do not accept] and we marched. Amidst tear gas, amidst burning and itching throats, amidst pelting stones; nothing was going to stop us.

It was a battle field. It was us the people against them the colonizers—our military state. A broken piece of a brick hit me, I shrugged it off. A much bigger brick hit the girl next to me on her hip and left her limping for a while, she didn't stop. There were lawyers who would come in front of us whenever stones would be thrown our way. Yes, many of our serving police specifically targeted the women. We went on. There were students who would pick up the falling gas bombs spewing the poisonous gas, run to the police as close as possible and drop it back on them. Many would come back staggering almost falling from the effects of the gases, whom we would have to hold up and give salt to, and back they would go to do more. The police would retreat as tear gas bombs hit them, and the people would cheer and dance. Then many more would be thrown at us, and back to work for all of us. For over two hours the police could not advance on us.

As the situation intensified, so did our chants. "Musharraf ka jo yaar hay, ghaddar hay ghaddar hay; biknay ke liye jo tayyar hay, ghaddar hay ghaddar hay. YEH POLICE BHI GHADDAR HAY, YEH POLICE BHI GHADDAR HAY, YEH POLICE BHI GHADDAR HAY" [Whoever is a friend to Musharraf, is a traitor, is a traitor; whoever is a willing to sell out, is a traitor, is a traitor. This Police is traitor, this police is a traitor, this police is a traitor]. Ultimately the police stormed us. A certain police officer who was especially targeting women ran after me full force. I took cover inside a house to save myself. Never have I run so fast in my life. Many were beaten up, some had to be hospitalized. Today was more than just another protest. In the midst of raw emotions, hurt limbs and hoarse throats, the only thing that mattered was the wrong being done to us. Indignant, and offended at this treatment; our protest very much was for human dignity. And more than anything else, the sensitivity that this now offended dignity of ours cannot even compare to the years of torment and subhuman treatment that most of our people in this country have endured. Well no more. Passivity that translates into consent and complicity, never again!

Musharraf's Approval Rating Plummets

Poll Finds Opposition Parties Could Win Two-Thirds in Next Week's Parliamentary Vote

By Griff Witte and Robin Wright
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, February 11, 2008; A09

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Feb. 10 -- A week before Pakistanis vote in parliamentary elections, President Pervez Musharraf's popularity has hit an all-time low and opposition parties seem capable of a landslide victory that could jeopardize his efforts to cling to power, according to a poll to be released Monday.

The poll found that just 15 percent of Pakistanis approve of Musharraf's job performance, exactly half the number who expressed approval in November. The two main opposition parties, meanwhile, had the backing of a combined 72 percent of those surveyed.

If Musharraf's allies do not succeed in rigging the election results in their favor, such broad-based support could give the opposition enough seats in the new parliament for the two-thirds majority needed to impeach the president.

"If a coalition of revenge gets a two-thirds majority, he's done. Absolutely done," said C. Christine Fair, a senior political analyst at the Rand Corp. research institution.

The poll results are the latest in a series of troubling indicators for Musharraf. In recent months, he has suspended the constitution, fired many judges on the Supreme Court and engineered a legally dubious reelection in his quest to stay in power.

While the constitution has since been restored, Musharraf's repeated crackdowns against political opponents, the judiciary and the mass media have turned the public adamantly against him. A year ago, most Pakistanis supported him. Now, three-quarters say they want him to resign.

"I don't know if his numbers could go any lower," said Robert Varsalone, country director for the International Republican Institute, the nonprofit, U.S.-based organization that conducted the poll. "He's probably at his floor."

Varsalone and another staffer for the institute, which includes prominent Republicans on its board, were forced to leave Pakistan last week after the government failed to renew their visas. The group has released a series of polls charting Musharraf's decline and has come under intense government pressure as a result.

The poll of 3,845 adults was conducted Jan. 19-29 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.69 percentage points.

There are widespread fears in Pakistan that Musharraf and his allies will rig next Monday's vote. But the institute's poll indicated that that could be a perilous step. A majority of those surveyed said they would back protests against the government if Musharraf's party is announced as the winner. Only 14 percent said they planned to vote for the main pro-Musharraf party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q.

Party spokesman Tariq Azim Khan conceded that it may lose seats next Monday but said Musharraf's allies would reap the benefits of incumbency and predicted that the PML-Q "will still be the single largest party" after the elections.

The institute's poll strongly indicates otherwise. The Pakistan People's Party, long led by Benazir Bhutto, appears to have gained substantial support since the former prime minister was assassinated in December. Half of those surveyed said they planned to vote for the PPP, with the next highest total, 22 percent, going to an opposition party led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

Such support could give the PPP and Sharif a powerful coalition, should they choose to work together against a president both have often condemned.

The institute's poll calls into question the belief of U.S. officials that the elections will produce a hung parliament, with power divided among the three major parties as well as a handful of smaller ethnic and religious parties. In an interview Friday, a senior U.S. intelligence official predicted that no two opposition parties would get the 66 percent necessary to impeach Musharraf or change the constitution.

Musharraf remains "very strong" and the "key political figure" in Pakistan, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The United States has steadfastly backed Musharraf over the past year, even as many Pakistanis have begun to look beyond him.

"Even before Benazir's assassination there was a strong and growing feeling that Musharraf had run his course," said Isobel Coleman of the Council on Foreign Relations. "People are generally fed up with him and with the state Pakistan is in right now."

In addition to his heavy-handed tactics, Musharraf has been hurt by rising inflation, electricity shortages and surging violence among Islamic extremists.

Musharraf is not the only one whose popularity has been damaged: Support in Pakistan for al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has fallen from 46 percent in August to 24 percent now, according to a separate poll released Sunday.

The survey, conducted by the U.S.-based nonprofit group Terror Free Tomorrow, found that the Taliban has experienced a similar drop, with support at 19 percent, half of what it was last summer.

Islamic extremists have dramatically escalated their campaign of terrorism over the past six months, and there are deep concerns in Pakistan that the violence could worsen ahead of next week's vote.

Wright reported from Washington.