Saturday, February 16, 2008

The More Things Change..

By Kamal K. Jabbar
In its sixty years of existence, Pakistan, envisioned by its founder as a constitutional republic, has had six periods of martial law, the last between 3rd November and 15th December of last year. On the eve of the general elections on 18th February, as one juxtaposes the past with the present, one gets the inevitable feeling of what the French refer to as "plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose"; the more things change, the more they stay the same.

While circumstances and people over the years have changed, certain election trends have remained remarkably consistent. Almost every election every held in the country has been replete with allegations of fraud and duplicity. The charges include, voter and candidate harassment, irregularities in the delimitation of constituencies, the fudging of voter lists, the misuse of state apparatus to assist state-favoured candidates, the active involvement of murkyintelligence agencies, ballot stuffing and biased appointments and conduct of election commissioners and election staff. A rejection of poll results by unsuccessful parties on the above pretexts has been afeature of almost all elections held so far.

In the 1965 presidential elections held under the Constitution of1962, Fatima Jinnah, Ayub Khan's main rival and the chosen candidateof the Combined Opposition Parties (COP) complained bitterly about howstate functionaries were actively impeding her campaign. She publicly stated that "so many obstructions have been placed that my faith inthe whole process has been shaken."

COP's demands for judicial inquiries into election complaints,stricter voter identity checks at polling stations and for judicialofficers (rather than executive officers) to serve as returningofficers were rejected by the government and the Election Commission.Miss Jinnah's demand that polls be held under an impartial, caretakergovernment was similarly brushed aside.

State-run radio, Radio Pakistan served as a propaganda mouthpiece forAyub who had publicly revealed his strongly held belief that democracywas not to the "genius of the Pakistani people", An indication of theGovernment's complicity in fixing Ayub's election comes from the factthat Khan A. Sabur, the serving Central Communications Minister,announced the date of the election to the press even before theofficial announcement by the Election Commission.

In the elections of March 1977 the Pakistan National Alliance (PNA)attributed the PPP's win of almost four-fifths of the availableNational Assembly seats to mass scale rigging, coercion, fraud and theuse of government jeeps and buses in electioneering. According to theZia regime's exhaustive though self-serving 'White Paper' on theelections, Bhutto had used government funds and intelligence and lawenforcement officials to ensure a PPP victory. Even in Bhutto's "safeseat" of Larkana, his opponent, Jan Mohammad Abbasi was arrested andkept at an undisclosed location till after the last date for filing ofnomination papers had passed. So lacking in credibility was thiselection, that even its Chief Election Commissioner, Justice SajjadAhmad Jan termed the process a hoax saying that "the failure of theelectoral process was, by and large, due to the candidates of theruling party who exploited their position and succeeded in hoaxing theofficials in charge of the elections, thus destroying the sanctity ofthe ballot box."

The Movement for the Restoration of Democracy (MRD), many of whoseleaders were in prison at the time, boycotted the February 1985elections held by Zia. Officially, these were party-less polls, thoughstate patronage was decidedly provided to the Jamaat-e-Islami. Thevoters responded by handing a resounding defeat to Zia and his allies.All but one of his Federal Ministers lost in their constituencies andthe Jamaat's showing was dismal at best.

In the October 1990 elections, the Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDA)which included the PPP, alleged that massive rigging had taken placeto install an Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) government. PresidentGhulam Ishaq Khan, who had dismissed the previous PPP government madeno secret of his preferred party. On the eve of the election he made atelevised speech asking the people to vote against the PDA destroyingevery semblance of the neutrality and impartiality of the office ofthe President. The PDA's White Paper on the elections alleged thatIshaq Khan had set up an election cell at the Aiwan-e-Sadar to closelymonitor and manage the election for it to yield his desired result.

The 1997 general elections which resulted in a two-thirds majority forthe PML (N) were dismissed by Benazir Bhutho as being "engineered".Qazi Hussain Ahmed also rubbished the elections and said that theJamaat would not recognize the government that would emerge.
The 2002 general elections were no exception to the trend and weretermed by national and international organizations, including HumanRights Watch, as being "deeply flawed".

The irony of Pakistan's electoral history is that arguably the freest,fairest and most transparent elections ever held were those under thestewardship of the dissolute General Yahya Khan in 1970.

Referendums have also been mis-used by Generals to validate or prolongtheir illegal tenures.
Pursuant to Ayub's Presidential Order, on the 14th of February 1960,Basic Democrats were required to answer the penetrating question:"Have you confidence in President Field Marshal Muhammad Ayub Khan,Hilal-i-Jurat?" The rules of this farce, set by the regime, stipulatedthat if a majority of the "votes" answered yes then Ayub would bedeemed to have been elected the President of Pakistan, given the soleauthority to produce a new constitution and also to serve as the firstterm as President under it. The regime was proud to announce that95.6% of the votes had gone in Ayub's favour.

Zia was also proud to announce that 97.7% of the people had voted forhim in his 1984 referendum while Musharraf was equally pleased withhis slighter higher showing of 98% approval.

As we move towards the elections on 18th February 2008, it may be safeto say that things have changed. For example, never before has seventypercent of Pakistan's judiciary been deposed and incarceratedillegally.

Other things, however, remain consistent with the past. We have a"president" who has addressed political rallies favouring oneparticular party. Resources of the state have been used to assist thisparty. Violence and bloodshed has visited us. District judges havebeen frantically transferred. The issue of millions of missing votersremains unresolved as do issues of delimitation.

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose!

Arif Hasan Talk in Karachi on Sunday

If you're a vintage Karachiite and you're deeply attached to the city though it troubles you, or you are posted here and it maddens you – whether infrastructurally, socially, economically or politically all of which are tied together – our forthcoming lecture will be of interest to you. Karachi is also a central issue in the elections for interest groups -- and the masses who may be more preoccupied by personal concerns than candidates.
We cordially invite you to a definitive talk on

"URBANIZATION, POLITICS, PUBLIC AND NATIONAL INTERESTS"
by Mr. Arif Hasan,leading environmentalist, architect and people-oriented planner,
on Sunday, 4th February, 2008, at 4 p.m. sharp
at 2 Bath Island Road, Parin Lodge, Karachi (near Bridge Store)

Presented by
PEOPLE'S RESISTANCE in association with The Green Economics Initiative, SHIRKAT GAH
Your RSVP would be helpful ! - Please call Sahar Shafqat on 0300-2938550

Former AG Questions 'SC haste'

(Courtesy DAWN)

LAHORE, Feb 15: Secretary General of Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, Former law minister and attorney-general Syed Iqbal Haider has expressed surprise over the way the Supreme Court issued its judgment in favour of the Nov 3 emergency rule on Thursday and disposed of a review petition against it the next day although the matter was not of urgent nature.
In a statement on Friday, he said the review petitions had been filed by people with dubious credentials who belonged to Gen Musharraf's camp.
He said Friday was the last working day before the elections and the judges hurriedly completed all proceedings, possibly because they thought that after the polls they would not be there to give their judgment.
He said even the petitioners' counsel had requested for an adjournment for preparation because they were informed by the SC only the night before that their case was fixed before a 16-meber bench for Friday. He said by disposing of the review petition, the court had blocked the remedy by the "independent judiciary" when it would be restored.
He said the incumbent judges were forgetting one basic principle of law that they could not be judge in their own case.
"The persons who validated the emergency were not competent to do so because they were beneficiaries of the order which even its author Gen Musharraf had admitted was unconstitutional.
"The so-called validation of the proclamation of emergency and dismissal of the review petition is an exercise in futility as it is without jurisdiction and lawful authority and is of no lawful effect or consequence."
The independent judiciary would be competent to set it aside, he said.
He argued no important political party or bar representative had challenged the proclamation of emergency for the simple reason that no lawful judicial forum was available to decide the matter. Had they filed any petition, they would have accorded recognition to the existing courts.

CCP: This is a Defining Moment

Musharraf, by becoming the most favoured ally of the West in their war against terror, has reaped a harvest of billions of dollars, which he has misused to wage a war against his own countrymen in Frontier and Balochistan. He has weakened the federation with his divisive policies. To perpetuate his own misrule, he has disfigured the constitution, demolished the judiciary, muzzled the media, imprisoned the judges and lawyers and appointed favourites in their place. The public has no access to justice. Crises of Ata, sugar, electricity, water, gas, un-employment and insecurity have made life miserable for the common man.

Musharraf's government has misused public funds, spread terror in the county, appointed handpicked Nazims and election officers, set up ghost polling stations, fabricated and collected National ID cards in order to rig the elections. We deserve a united and prosperous Pakistan where citizens are secure, jobs and necessities of life are freely available and everyone has access to justice. Your vote will decide whether Musharraf's cronies will return to continue their despotism, or a leadership is elected which promises independence of the judiciary and government of the people, by the people, for the people. Be vigilant against rigging. Find your polling station and your name in the voter's list a day before the election. Arrive early, cast your vote yourself according to your conscience for honest candidates who promise to restore the judiciary and to work for a peaceful, democratic Pakistan.

"UTH BULLHIA, YAAR MANAA LAI! NAEEN TAY BAAZI LAI GAEY KUTTAY".

(Concerned Citizens of Pakistan (CCP), a non-partisan, non-political group).

Parliament Watch-- Press Release 16-02-2008

It is with great honor and pleasure that the Future Leaders of Pakistan (FLP), an organization representing the youth of Pakistan, has completed the "Parliament Watch" project in anticipation of theupcoming elections. Our organization is the largest youth-based organization in Pakistan since being established in 1997.
For Parliament Watch, please visit: www.pw.org.pk
As you can see, the website is a revolutionary format for free speech and it has become the medium of choice for the Pakistani internet community of over 12 million users. We have done this project with the greatest desire to strengthen the democratic political institutions of our country. We hope that you will lend us a helping hand in spreading awareness regarding this project by circulating this email widely.
Our youth are tomorrow's leaders, and we hope that you will recognize our desire to bring about positive change in Pakistan.
Sincerely,

Tamreez Inam

President, FLP

Jawab by 3.0 - Music for our times

3.0 (three point oh) is an informal political/social musical experiment, made up of several LUMS alumni. Much before the recent political/social storm, they started making songs about revolution, about young people having a duty towards their society. Society however had little time for active politics before they found a leader they could trust or look up to in CJ Iftikhar. When our dictator president finally did us this favor, as I put it, these guys put out a video for their song Jawab, which talks about how so many people in our society will do nothing to put things right, and furthermore will do everything to discourage and pull down those around them that do care and are trying to make a difference. It talks about how the efforts of those who see and feel can never go waste.

The video is based on the concept of freedom and independence of journalism, and how that today is society's eyes, ears and voice today. Shackled, tormented, maligned, abused; it leads to a society on the edge of insanity and intolerance. The funny thing is, right after November 3 when they released it, 3point0 were told our country's music channels liked the song, but couldn't play it so as not to offend the powers that be. The same media who's independence they wanted to.

All their other songs I've heard are similarly political and optimistic, and I could put these up or something, with the hope that they help inspire young people who want to be bystanders no more, and who are already beginning to burn with a passion for fairness and justice.

The band has no commercial agenda.

Website: www.project3p0.com

3.0 are:

Sabqat Mansoor (MBA 06)

Farhad Nadeem (MBA 06)

Zain zakariha (MBA 06)

Danish Lamuel (MBA 06)

Omeir Zahid (MBA 06)

Message from Aitzaz Ahsan to Pakistanis - Part Two

Message from Aitzaz Ahsan to Pakistanis - Part One


The following video has been obtained by us through special arrangements and SAC is releasing it for the general audience right now. The video includes a message to the people of Pakistan followed by a very inspirational poem by none other than Honorable Aitzaz Ahsan. It is addressed particularly to the youth and future leaders of Pakistan who have been actively opposing oppression of the current regime and continuing the struggle for the restoration of the judiciary even when the main leaders are still kept under illegal custody or house-arrest.
This video is HIGHLY inspirational and I would recommend all of you to watch it.

PTV electoral coverage - heavy bias in favour of Musharraf & allies

With just four days to go to the 18 February parliamentary elections, Reporters Without Borders confirms that the state television station PTV's coverage continues to be heavily biased in favour of President Pervez Musharraf and his allies. The press freedom organisation has been monitoring the election campaign coverage of Pakistan's only terrestrial TV broadcaster since 28 January.
From 3 to 12 February, 81 per cent of the political items (reports, interviews, analyses etc) on PTV's four main news programmes were about the president, federal government or ruling party, the PML (Q). As regards political parties alone, PML (Q) got 24.3 per cent of air-time, while the opposition PML (N) got 6.7 per cent and the PPP, the other leading opposition party, got 10.1 per cent. During this 10-day period, the PML (Q) was mentioned for a total of 109 minutes and 38 seconds, while the entire opposition total was just 85 minute and few seconds.
"Despite the denials from the government and PTV in response to the first set of results we published, the trend has not changed significantly," Reporters Without Borders said. "Pakistan's only national TV station has, it is true, talked a bit more about the PPP and other opposition parties, but this in no way means its coverage is fair."
The organisation added: "We urge international observers to include PTV's lack of fairness in their conclusions on Pakistan's electoral process."
The breakdown of air-time allocation in the monitored news programmes was 11.8 per cent for the president, 44.9 per cent for the federal and provincial governments, 24.3 per cent for the ruling PML (Q), 6.7 per cent for Nawaz Sharif's PML (N), 10.1 per cent for the late Benazir Bhutto's PPP, 0.1 per cent for the nationalist parties (such as the ANP) and 2 per cent for the MMA fundamentalist alliance. The APDM alliance, which is calling for an election boycott, got no air-time.
The coverage given to the ANP, a Pashtun party, was mainly due to a suicide bombing on one of its meetings on 10 February.
A significant improvement in the PPP's share of air-time from 7 February onwards was due to the Chehlum ceremonies held 40 days after Benazir Bhutto's assassination. PTV's reports included criticism of the current PPP leadership and comments by politician Mumtaz Bhutto, who was able to condemn the "politicisation of Benazir Bhutto's assassination" for two minutes. The PPP got as much coverage as the PML (Q) from 7 to 9 February, but the difference resumed the next day, when the ruling party got 13 minutes 20 seconds and the PPP got 5 minutes 20 seconds.
It should be noted that the 81 per cent of air-time allocated to the president and his allies was a slight improvement on the first period monitored by Reporters Without Borders, when they were allocated 84.9 per cent.
Reporters Without Borders noted that PTV readily broadcasts criticism of the opposition by the regime's supporters. But the criticism of Musharraf and his allies that is expressed at opposition meetings is rarely broadcast. On 10 February, for example, it broadcast comments by politician Chaudhry Perwaiz Elahi forecasting that Pakistan would break up if the PPP got to power.
The authorities have described the Reporters Without Borders monitoring as mendacious. They have claimed, for example, that the government has nothing to do with the president's political camp. But all observers agree that most government ministers are, directly or indirectly, political allies of Musharraf or the PML (Q). The acting prime minister is a former senate president who was elected as a PML (Q) representative, while the ministers of information and inter-provincial coordination are leading PML (Q) members. A minister in the Balochistan provincial government is even a candidate, in violation of the electoral law.
In the programme "Khabar Nama" on 6 February, PTV described the first Reporters Without Borders release on its monitoring as false and fabricated. But it misrepresented the results. Reporters Without Borders never said that 85 per cent of the air-time had been allocated to the PML (Q). It said that it had been allocated to the PML (Q), the president and the government.
On 11 February, PTV launched a 55-minutes new programme called "Election hour" that provides a forum for "all the parties." Opposition parties' leaders have already been invited, but it is doubtful that it will restore balance in the distribution of air-time before the elections.
The Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) recently issued rules to the privately-owned TV stations for their election-day coverage. No forecast or estimate of results is to be broadcast until the person in charge of the polling state has announced the official results.

Reporters Without Borders has monitored the state-owned TV broadcaster PTV's coverage of the 18 February parliamentary election campaign since 28 January.

In Tribal Pakistan, Religious Parties Are Foundering

(Courtesy The New York Times)
By CARLOTTA GALL
Published: February 14, 2008

PESHAWAR, Pakistan — Senator Asfandyar Wali, the leader of an opposition party, the Awami National Party, is campaigning for the elections next week from the safety of his bed, under a quilt and propped up on bolsters for his bad back at his country home outside Peshawar. Ill health aside, Mr. Wali is staying home because suicide bombers are seeking to kill him, his party has been warned by high-level government officials. There have been two bomb attacks on his party's election gatherings in the last week. Two candidates have been killed, one in a suicide bombing and one in a shooting in Karachi.
Yet despite the attacks and the limited campaigning, his party is expected to do well in the parliamentary elections on Monday. The religious parties that for the last five years have governed the North-West Frontier Province and Baluchistan Province, which border Afghanistan and the tribal areas, are foundering. Since being swept to power in 2002 on a wave of anti-Americanism and sympathy for the Taliban after the American invasion of Afghanistan, the mullahs here have found that the public mood has shifted against them. People complain that they have failed to deliver on their promises, that they have proved just as corrupt as other politicians and that they have presided over a worsening of security, demonstrated most vividly in a rising number of suicide attacks carried out by militants based in the nearby tribal areas.

"They did not serve the people," said Faiz Muhammad, 47, a farmer whose son was killed in the bomb blast on an Awami political gathering on Saturday. The shift in mood here may be a bellwether of larger trends nationwide. The religious parties held 59 seats in the 342-member Parliament, making them a kingmaker at critical times, like helping President Pervez Musharraf to extend his military rule. But this time their number may fall to single digits, according to some estimates.Pollsters and political analysts in Pakistan have maintained that the religious parties command only a small percentage of popular support and that the 2002 elections were an aberration, a reaction to the American intervention in Afghanistan and the result of rigging by Pakistan's intelligence agencies, which have always had links with the religious parties.Two opinion polls released this week show that the standing of the religious parties has fallen to a new low, with voters showing a strong shift of support toward the moderate parties. A survey of more than 3,000 people at the end of January by the International Republican Institute showed that the religious parties could command only 1 percent of the vote nationally, down from 4 percent in November. In North-West Frontier Province and Baluchistan Province, their share was 4 percent.

Meanwhile, support for the Pakistan Peoples Party, the party of the assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, has soared to 50 percent nationally, the poll found. The face-to-face survey was conducted throughout Pakistan and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus two percentage points. Another survey conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow, a Washington-based bipartisan group that seeks to reduce support for international terrorism, showed backing at 62 percent for the Pakistan Peoples Party and the faction of the Pakistan Muslim League led by the opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif.

If the Taliban were on the ballot sheet, they would garner just 3 percent of the vote, and Al Qaeda only 1 percent, according to the poll. The face-to-face nationwide survey of more than 1,000 interviews was conducted in January with D3 Systems and the Pakistan Institute for Public Opinion and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Here in North-West Frontier Province, where religious parties won a majority and ran the government, they are blamed for being soft on the militants and for allowing "Talibanization," the radical Islamist agenda creeping into society.

"People are fed up because they are not opposing the attacks by the Taliban openly," said Muhammad Jawed, 40, a businessman who attended the funeral for Mr. Muhammad's son. That frustration has redounded to the favor of moderate opposition parties like the Awami National Party, a Pashtun nationalist party founded by Mr. Wali's grandfather. It was almost wiped out in the last elections, in 2002, when it welcomed the American intervention in Afghanistan. In its place a coalition of religious parties, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, was elected.

The provincial assembly in Peshawar was filled with madrasa-educated mullahs, more than a dozen heavily veiled women on reserve seats and even mujahedeen who had fought in Kashmir and Afghanistan. They advocated the introduction of Islamic law, or Shariah, and the banning of music, cinema and alcohol. The Awami National Party failed to win any seats in the national assembly and only 10 seats in the provincial assembly. It is now hoping to triple that on Monday and to secure as many as 12 national assembly seats. The religious coalition itself is in disarray, facing attacks from both left and right.

One of the largest parties in the coalition, Jamaat-e-Islami, is boycotting the elections, protesting what it says is an uneven playing field provided by Mr. Musharraf. The other main party in the coalition, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, is split, tainted after its leader, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, made compromises to support Mr. Musharraf. In particular, Maulana Rehman broke with the militants in their standoff last summer with government forces at the Red Mosque in Islamabad. When other opposition parties resigned from Parliament last October, seeking to undercut Mr. Musharraf's election to another term, Maulana Rehman stood by the president. Today, Maulana Rehman is homebound, under threat from the militants who resent the support he has lent to Mr. Musharraf. His house has come under attack, and he is under threat from suicide attacks, government officials have said.

For Mr. Wali, the expected trouncing of the religious parties on Monday is recompense. "I feel," he said, "that we Pashtuns have had enough of war, enough of bloodshed, and the common man now accepts that."

Original article here.

HRCP Condemns State Sponsored Violence

Press Release

February 12, 2008 Karachi: In a joint statement issued to the press Mr. Iqbal Haider, Secretary General, Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) and Ms. Zohra Yusuf, Vice Chairperson, HRCP strongly condemned spread of mob violence and lawlessness across the country, just before the general elections in Pakistan. This violence has spiraled completely out of control of the government, and is threatening to plunge the country into a state of total anarchy.

Recent terrorist attacks in Pakistan show the failure of anti-terrorism policies. It is obvious that mere policing and random arrests can do nothing to overcome the menace. A broader approach is required, coupled with a willingness to end the air of secrecy that currently surrounds operations being carried out against alleged terrorists, the statement said. Repeated attack on the election campaigns and the candidates, including the recent attack on the workers of ANP resulting in deaths of several party workers indicate there are attempts to intimidate voters. HRCP strongly condemns the attack and condoles with the grieved families and leaders and workers of ANP. A government which cannot provide safety to the voters and their candidates is incapable of holding free and fair elections.

The caretakers and President Pervez Musharraf have no moral or legal justification to remain in office. HRCP also condemns the violent attack on the peaceful gathering of lawyers, human rights activists and members of the civil society in Islamabad on February 09, 2007 and the recent fake cases of sedition and war against state registered against more than a dozen lawyers in Peshawar, who were protesting against the arrest of the Chief Justice, Mr. Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, Mr Aitzaz Ahsan, Mr. Justice Tariq Mehmood and Mr. Ali Ahmed Kurd. HRCP believes that targeting innocent people, suspending access to justice and repressing legitimate dissent would only create resentment, encourage extremism and exacerbate insecurity.

Iqbal Haider
Secretary General,
HRCP
Zohra Yusuf
Vice-Chairperson,
HRCP

Pakistan's Tehalka!

Human Rights Watch Releases a shocking Phone Conversation
Pakistan: Attorney General Aware of ‘Massive’ Election-Rigging Plans
Audio Recording Calls Into Question Government’s Commitment to Fair Elections
(New York, February 15, 2008) – In an audio recording obtained by Human Rights Watch, Pakistan’s Attorney General Malik Qayyum stated that upcoming parliamentary elections will be “massively rigged,” Human Rights Watch said today.

In the recording, Qayyum appears to be advising an unidentified person on what political party the person should approach to become a candidate in the upcoming parliamentary election, now scheduled for February 18, 2008. Human Rights Watch said that the recording was made during a phone interview with a member of the media on November 21, 2007. Qayyum, while still on the phone interview, took a call on another telephone and his side of that conversation was recorded. The recording was made the day after Pakistan’s Election Commission announced the schedule for polls.
The election was originally planned for January 8 but was postponed after the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. Another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, returned to Pakistan on November 25. An English translation of the recording, which is in Urdu and Punjabi, follows: “Leave Nawaz Sharif (PAUSE).... I think Nawaz Sharif will not take part in the election (PAUSE).... If he does take part, he will be in trouble. If Benazir takes part she too will be in trouble (PAUSE).... They will massively rig to get their own people to win. If you can get a ticket from these guys, take it (PAUSE).... If Nawaz Sharif does not return himself, then Nawaz Sharif has some advantage. If he comes himself, even if after the elections rather than before (PAUSE)…. Yes….”
Repeated attempts by Human Rights Watch to contact Qayyum by phone were unsuccessful.
Fears of rigging have been a major issue in the current election campaign. Human Rights Watch said that since the official election period commenced in November 2007, there have been numerous allegations of irregularities, including arrests and harassment of opposition candidates and party members. There are also allegations that state resources, administration and state machinery are being used to the advantage of candidates backed by President Pervez Musharraf. Human Rights Watch expressed concern that the Election Commission, which is monitoring the polls, was not acting impartially.
Background: Malik Qayyum is a former judge who resigned from the bench in 2001 amid charges of misconduct. On April 15, 1999, a two-judge panel of the Lahore High Court headed by Qayyum convicted Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari in a corruption case. They were sentenced to five years in prison, fined US$8.6 million dollars each, disqualified as members of parliament for five years, and forced to forfeit their property. The impending verdict led Bhutto to go into exile in March 1999.
In February 2001, the Sunday Times, a British newspaper, published a report based on transcripts of 32 audio tapes, which revealed that Qayyum convicted Bhutto and Zardari for political reasons. The transcripts of the recordings reproduced by the newspaper showed that Qayyum asked then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s anti-corruption chief, Saifur Rehman, for advice on the sentence: “Now you tell me how much punishment do you want me to give her?”
In April 2001, on the basis of this evidence, a seven-member bench of Pakistan’s Supreme Court upheld an appeal by the couple, overturning the conviction. In its ruling, the Supreme Court contended that Qayyum had been politically motivated in handing down the sentence. Faced with a trial for professional misconduct before Pakistan’s Supreme Judicial Council, the constitutional body authorized to impeach senior judges, Qayyum opted to resign his post in June 2001.
A close associate of Musharraf, Qayyum was appointed as the lead counsel on behalf of Pakistan’s federal government in the presidential reference against Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, instituted after Chaudhry was first illegally deposed by Musharraf on March 9, 2007. A full bench of Pakistan’s Supreme Court reinstated Chief Justice Chaudhry on July 20, 2007. Qayyum was appointed attorney general of Pakistan by Musharraf in August 2007.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Baitullah Mehsud to send delegation to meet Zardari

By Hamid Mir

ISLAMABAD: Militant leader of South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud will send a seven-member delegation to meet PPP co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari to condole the death of Benazir Bhutto, it is reliably learnt.

The delegation, comprising prominent tribal elders and religious scholars from South Waziristan, will deliver a written condolence letter from Mehsud to Asif Zardari.

Mehsud had formed this delegation many days ago and tried to send it to Naudero but some members of the delegation could not manage to come out of the tribal area due to the prevailing tension. Now the situation is normalising and members of the delegation are once again ready to go to Islamabad or Lahore to meet Asif Zardari.

A member, nominated for the delegation, told The News that Mehsud was indirectly in contact with the PPP leadership before October 18, 2007, when Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan after a long time and faced bomb attack in Karachi.

He had assured the PPP before October 18 that he has no plans to attack Benazir Bhutto. The government claimed after the attack that it was a suicide attack but Benazir Bhutto had doubts. She said many times that it was a time bomb not a suicide attack. After her assassination on December 27, government again claimed that Mehsud was the mastermind behind the attack but Asif Zardari clearly said in one of his interviews that PPP has no conflict with Mehsud. This statement encouraged Mehsud to establish a direct contact with Asif Zardari. In his address to the nation last month President Pervez Musharraf accused Mehsud of assassinating Benazir Bhutto.

The PPP is not ready to believe the claims of different government officials and continues to demand a UN probe into Benazir Bhuttoís murder. It is worth mentioning that Mehsud had signed a peace treaty with the Musharraf regime in February 2005 and again swapped kidnapped Army officials for his militants, who were released from Rawalpindi on November 3, 2007.

(Courtesy: The News)

Personal comment: I just hope that new government which emerges from the elections will do whatever it takes to get Pakistan army out of the war in Waziristan. This gesture of solidarity with the democratic process shows that those who are currently locked in a war with Pak Army want the war to end, and have high hopes of the politicians. I hope that the politicians will have the good sense to blame the war on Musharraf, leave it behind and sign a truce, and buy peace for all Pakistanis.

If Pak army wasn't massacring people( non-combattants as well as combattant - whom we often forget are also people), why would people be willing to become suicide-bombers? Why would they give their lives to shock us and harm us, if the war had not driven them desperate. The price of assuring peace in other parts of Pakistan is the granting of peace in Waziristan and other war-torn regions. Not too dear, if you ask me.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Festival of the Oppressed

Umer Chaudhry

February 9th, 2007, was an important day for the lawyers' movementand for the people of Pakistan. It was that day when the lawyersshowed their resilience in the face of State repression on thestreets of Islamabad. It was that day when the lawyers showed to therest of the world that their movement will not fade away. It willstand to accomplish its objectives. It will stand for the rights ofthe people, for restoration of judiciary, for free and fairelections. The Communist Mazdoor Kissan Party (CMKP) finds it totheir honor to stand by the lawyers in their struggle for democracyand justice.
It started with the usual chill of the winter morning when a carrally organized by the Concerned Citizens of Pakistan left from thegates of Aitzaz Ahsan's residence in Lahore. The organizers were kindenough to give space to some student-members of the CMKP for free.The long journey was made easy by discussions that ranged from anti-war movement in USA to political theories and the upcoming electionsin Pakistan. We made short stays at the Bar Associations on our wayas more lawyers and cars joined in. Ahmed Mukhtar, who is contestingelections from Pakistan People's Party against Pakistan Muslim League-Q's stalwart Shujat Hussain, hosted our lunch and briefed us abouthis preparations to tackle rigging of elections in his constituency.As we were getting late, we had to avoid more stops and rushedtowards Islamabad.
Still we were not on time to attend the Pakistan Bar Council'smeeting at Islamabad. We drove to the Aitzaz Ahsan's house where agroup of lawyers was waiting for us, ready to march on to theresidence of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. As thedemonstration started, members of CMKP from Rawalpindi/Islamabadarrived armed with large red flags marked with the hammer and sickleand a megaphone. Without wasting any moment, we ran towards the rallywaving our flags, caught our breath, and started raising our slogansagainst the military rule.
The path to the Chief Justice's house passes through an upward slopeand a large contingent of Police was deployed there behind abarricade. As we approached the cordon, the first splash of watercannon was thrown our way. At first, there was a slight panic. Thewater cannon were being used for the first time and some people whowere not expecting to face the strong pressure of water also fell onthe road. The Government of Pakistan was trying to find proper use offire brigade, which had failed miserably in dealing with a number offires in the past, to defeat the political protests. However, it onlydampened the protestors in the chilling cold – nothing more thanthat. Obviously, those who are willing to get their heads opened bystones in the course of struggle were not to be deterred by water.Soon there was a cry: "it's only water". Everyone moved forwardfacing the high pressure of water cannon. Some lawyers also startedpelting stones to respond to State's aggression. As I approached thebarricade, all wet and damp, I found fellow CMKP members standingright on the barricade. Comrade A was standing with open armschallenging the water cannon while his back was being supported byComrade F. The pressure of water was so high that even Comrade Fslipped a few inches back to hold up Comrade A from falling back whenfaced with splashes.
The fire brigade failed miserably – again. They must have run out ofwater. The first shell of tear-gas was launched at the agitators. Itwas dreadful. I have been facing tear-gas since March last year andnot that I can resist tear-gas (one of my friends who has beenswimming since childhood can), I could see that this was not theordinary one that we have been inhaling in Lahore. Old ladies, theircommitment must be appreciated, who could not run fell down in themidst of the tear-gas attack and were helped out by young students.It was unbearable. As I ran back, my face and eyes were burning withstinging pain and there was a strong urge to vomit. With eyes half-closed and face coved by the wet flag, I ran back to the point whereI could feel comfortable. It was quite a run.
Anyhow, I recovered in around five minutes and rushed to the frontwhere an active fight was taking place between lawyers and Police. Iimmediately started looking for a stone and was lucky to have onedelivered by the Police just few feet away from me. I happilyreturned it.
The lawyers were fighting with great energy and enthusiasm. They werechanting slogans against the Police and standing valiantly in theline of stone-fire. More tear-gas shells were fired, which werereturned back by angry agitators who were wearing gloves to savetheir hands as they hold hot shells. Such daring was appreciated byloud cheers from the rest and boosted our spirits. Young girls wereswearing at the dictator and throwing rocks at the Police. That was aplace to be - all that I could have wished for. Now, I wish for more.But, I was joyful. Revolution is, after all, a festival of theoppressed.
In a middle of all this, a well-known senior lawyer positionedhimself at higher spot, wanting to engage the crowd with his coldspeech. That gentleman was keener to deliver a speech to the lawyersrather than leading them like other gallant senior lawyers, some ofwhom was arrested by the Police. People were not interested in words.They wanted action from their leaders. A young female lawyer askedthe orator to step down (in no kind words) and to go where action is.That "leader" had to step down, but was nowhere to be seen at thefront.
Another interesting bit was interaction with the management ofMarriott Hotel that was on the street where the whole event wastaking place. Some lawyers asked the Hotel management to provide themwith water so that they can treat their burning eyes. The managementplainly denied. The furious lawyers started throwing the tear-gasshells that could not be returned to the Police at Marriott. When thePolice misfired a tear-gas shell into the Marriott, it was cheered bythe protestors. Such was the anger against the apathetic managementof the Hotel that found it better to serve their rich clients ratherthan those fighting for democracy in the streets. Such was the angeragainst the symbols of class oppression.
In the meanwhile, the protestors had divided in four groups: one inthe middle, one on the right, and the third on the left. The fourthwas at the back. The middle one was the bait for the Police. Attackswere launched from the left and the right. The group at the back onlymoved further back.
The Police, hitting their shields with their batons, moved further inoffensive and the lawyers had the retreat. Some lawyers tried to makelast attempts at attacking a police. A small group chanting Allah hosmashed themselves into the Policemen. All were arrested. It wasinteresting how the rich sufi tradition of the South Asia founditself in the movement for democracy and justice. The flank on theleft was routed by Police into a street. One of my friends who werewith that group evaded arrest by excusing that he was only there topick up his sister from the protest. Many people from that factionwere arrested by the Police.
Finally, the lawyers had to retreat into the Super Market with thechants of Allah ho. It was a good day. The lawyers engaged the Policefor three hours in a fierce street battle and showed superb patienceand valiance. The movement was shown to be alive and kicking.
Before I part with this report, there is a questions that eruptedafter the protest that I want to deal here. A good fellow questionedthe utility of going these protests. His argument was that we shouldfocus our energy in raising awareness elsewhere rather than attendingpublic demonstrations. While I whole-heartedly agree with the ideathat we must go to schools and colleges or, for that matter,everywhere we find a crowd to raise consciousness, we should notunderestimate the potential of protests. People don't learn merelythrough words. Had that been the case, the revolution would haveoccurred many years ago. People also learn from practical examples.We must show them and motivate them with our struggle in the streetprotests against the Military Dictatorship. As the Salvador Allende,the Marxist President of Chile, said in his last address to hispeople moments before he was murdered when fighting against militarygenerals those who instigated a coup against him: "I am sure mysacrifice will not be in vain; I am sure that it will at least be amoral lesson which will punish felony, cowardice and, treason." Whenwe attend the protest, we challenge apathy and cowardice. Not only weset an example for others, we educate ourselves with the lessons thatcan only be experienced from the streets and not the books.

Protest rallies and the right to freedom of expression

Nauman Qaiser- Advocate

In true democracies, peaceful protests are deemed a medium through which ordinary people can voice their concerns about the government polices. These protests are, thus, an embodiment of the power of the rank and file and a beacon of freedom of expression, for which these democracies have fought long-drawn battles. Besides, they provide the necessary feedback to the government, which can rectify its public policies in the light of these concerns. That is why these peaceful rallies are not suppressed viciously the way they are in “fake” democracies like Pakistan.

Saturday’s protest rally in Islamabad by the lawyers and the members of the civil society including students was nothing more than a peaceful and innocent effort to record their resentment at the misguided policies of the Musharraf regime. But the way this rally was stifled smacks of intolerance and lack of awareness of the boons of these rallies on part of the present government. It also shows the double standards of the government, which claims to believe in democracy, but does not allow the peaceful citizens to express their sentiments; instead tear gas, rubber bullets and stones are used by the law enforcement agencies to “greet” the protesters, whose fault is that they desire a genuine democracy with free and independent judiciary in their country.

On top of it all, Mr. Musharraf has the audacity to say in front of the western media that true democracy does not suit Pakistan and its culture; therefore, he proposes, that his brand of controlled democracy should be supported, in which media could be curbed; judges could be deposed, that too in dozens; lawyers and students could be brutally beaten up and arrested; the powerful could disobey the law with impunity; daily food items like flour and sugar could go beyond the reach of the rank and file – all on the pretext of “national interest” and the mantra of “Pakistan comes first”.

A western reader would be bemused to read about this brand of democracy, which has all the requisites of a brutal dictatorship. General (r) Musharraf should, therefore realize that he cannot befoul us by claiming to be a democratically elected president of Pakistan. The rubber stump parliament, pliant beauracracy and the involvement of military in politics does not even give a semblance of a democratic dispensation in the country. In this gloomy scenario, it was the judiciary lead by the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Mr. Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhary, which showed us that there was a light at the end of the tunnel. But, unfortunately, this pillar of the state too was “murdered” brutally.

So what is the future of Pakistan now? Do we really see light at the end of the tunnel? The answer fortunately is “Yes” with a capital Y. But the path to democracy is long and filled with thorns. We need to create awareness among the masses, especially the poor class of the society, of their rights, so they do not sit at homes and curse their destiny for the wronged policies of the government. The middle class, which has been the backbone of the worldwide movements, also needs to realize that without its active participation, we cannot even think of the bringing true democracy in the country. The political parties should also shun the politics of expediency and instead focus on the well being of their voters.

Unfortunately, besides the poor lawyers, who have sacrificed even their bread and butter for the sake of their principles, no section of the society is willing to come on the roads in large numbers to give impetus to the current movement. Until and unless the civil society and the political parties realize their potential to bring true democracy in Pakistan, the lawyers’ effort alone may not bring the desired fruits.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

It is but a finger

On fracture and futility
Hassan Rehman

These miscreants never learn. Baton-charged by police, beaten up by Jamiat members, slapped around by security guards at Punjab College, tortured by the Lord Mayor’s goons, they go on indulging in politically incorrect activities.

The point today is that it’s only a finger, nothing more – so no mourning please (we are not of those who indulge in exercises innately futile).

But who told the activists (the “prig-est” of us all??) that Musharraf would shower flower petals on them when they walked on Constitution Avenue for the restoration of the free judiciary? Or that the Police would offer them fruit and juices when they tried to go to the house of detained Chief Justice? Or that the Frontier Constabulary would garland them for their self-righteousness?

Point: if the finger has been fractured, it is solely the fault of the activist. If he was anxious about something, that apparently so few in this country consider wrong, he should have sent an email to his colleagues, or, for that matter, sent an SMS to his friends, or, if the anxiety taxed him beyond endurance, published an article in a newspaper – why take to the ROADS? Jahil qaum. Bloody fool.

Didn’t he read what Ghalib so presciently declared more than a century ago? ‘Jisko ho jaan-o-dil azeez, uski gali may jayay kyoon?’

And that was just one point.

- Maybe he was a CIA agent – trying to destabilize Pakistan (for which he and his fellow activists were baton-charged)
- Maybe he was a zealot produced by some Madressah – trying to spread hatred (for which he and his fellow activists were suffered tear-gas)
- Maybe he and his fellow activists were yahoodi agents, planted to defame Islam (that’s why the Police did not disclose the location of the lock-up where they were kept, lest their friends manage to provide them food and blankets)
- Maybe he was a miscreant, who earned impressive grades from UET and taught at FAST later, only to disguise his real motive – destroying Pakistan (for which he and his fellow activists were dragged on the road leading to the residence of detained Chief Justice)
- Maybe he was some lunatic escaped from a mental hospital – and was a danger for law and order (that’s why his finger was fractured)And that was just one angle.

Had he got an iota of sense,

- He should have waited till millions came on to the roads to protest (why go NOW when there are so few incensed by the rout of the judiciary?)
- He should have struggled to make the people ‘naik’ and ‘saleh’. When people become naik, society gets better – and no Jurnail would then dare to slaughter the Constitution. And – lest the non-believers are confused – it is the ONLY road to salvation.
- He should have gone to a psychiatrist, if what gets reported on newspapers and TV channels these months was making him incensed, agitated and restless.

Verdict: It’s only a finger, and it’s he who is solely responsible for its fracture.

Suggestion: The State together with the sane members of the society should get his remaining bones insured, since these miscreants (euphemism: activists) never learn.

IRI: Details of Latest Survey

Three Crises: Economic, Political and Security

The most significant event since IRI’s last poll was the assassination of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Chairperson and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Its impact on the political landscape has been significant, both as a setback to President Pervez Musharraf as well as a boost to her party’s numbers.

When asked if they felt that Bhutto’s death had weakened the federation, 93 percent agreed. Pakistanis also blamed the government for her death; 62 percent cited it as responsible for her assassination while only 13 percent blamed Al-Qaeda. This indicates a collapse in the government’s credibility among its citizens.

Pakistan is also facing economic difficulties; 94 percent agreed that the shortages of wheat, petrol and electricity were serious problems. These bread and butter issues remain the top concern in the minds of Pakistani voters. When presented with a number of issues and asked to select the most important in determining which party they would vote for, 77 percent chose an economy-related issue (inflation, unemployment, poverty and development). Inflation was the top issue, having been selected by 55 percent of the respondents.

Voters also indicated a rising concern about their economic well-being. Also important to voters, is the declining sense of security. Voters expressed concern regarding rising Islamic fundamentalism; 73 percent agreed that religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan. Further, 65 percent said that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda operating in the country is also a serious concern. However, only 33 percent of Pakistanis supported the Army fighting extremists in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and tribal areas and just nine percent felt that Pakistan should cooperate with the United States in its war on terror.

Social Indicators

Over the past year IRI polling has tracked a number of indicators in order to gauge the overall mood of the population. In February’s poll, these indicators hit all-time highs of pessimism, while optimism dropped to all-time lows.

∙ When asked about the direction that the country was headed, an all-time high of 84 percent said it was headed in the wrong direction while an all-time low of 15 percent said in the right direction; this represents a 14 point increase in the wrong direction number and an 11 point drop in the right direction number.

∙ When asked if their personal economic situation improved or worsened in the past year, 13 percent said improved, 72 percent said worsened and 14 percent said that it stayed the same. Again, these numbers represent all-time highs and lows. (more)

IRI Pakistan Index – Page Two

∙ When asked if they thought that their personal economic situation would improve or worsen over the course of the next year, 20 percent of those interviewed said improve, 48 percent said worsen and 20 percent said stay the same. The 48 percent who responded that their economic condition would worsen represents a 15 point increase since the last poll. Nearly half of the population is pessimistic about their economic future, and economic issues are front and center in the minds of voters.

∙ The worsening security environment has resulted in higher levels of insecurity; when asked if they felt more secure this year than they did last year, 12 percent said yes and 85 percent said no. This is a 19 point increase in the number of people saying they felt less secure since IRI’s last poll.

Leadership Ratings

President Musharraf’s political position has severely eroded, with his popularity and approval ratings falling to all-time lows. Since the last poll, he has made a number of moves that should have improved his position, including the ending of the state of emergency, resigning as Army Chief of Staff, assuming office as a civilian president and declaring elections. Whatever bounce he might have received from these actions disappeared in the wake of Bhutto’s assassination, the declining security situation and the worsening economy.

∙ The vast majority of Pakistanis want Musharraf out of office, with 75 percent wanting his resignation and 16 percent opposed; six percent replied maybe. The number calling for his resignation has increased eight points from the last poll.

∙ Musharraf’s job approval rating has hit a new low, with 15 percent saying they approved of the job he was doing and 72 percent saying they disapproved. His approval rating has been cut in half since the last poll, when it was at 30 percent.

∙ Musharraf’s overall popularity has also dropped, with only 16 percent saying they liked him; the number saying they liked him has declined by 12 points since the last survey.

∙ When Pakistanis were asked which one leader was the best person to handle the country’s problems, only eight percent named him this time around; this is a drop of 15 points since the last poll.

∙ When asked how they would feel about the future of the country if Musharraf resigned, 62 percent of the respondents said very good and another 17 percent said good, for a combined 79 percent. (more)

IRI Pakistan Index – Page Three

∙ The political and economic crises have also impacted the government’s ratings. When asked how the government performed on issues most important to them, 18 percent rated the government positively and 80 percent did not; 52 percent rated the government’s performance in the most negative category of very poor. When asked if the ruling coalition had done a good enough job to deserve re-election, 29 percent said yes and 62 percent said no. In the wake of Bhutto’s death, there is a leadership vacuum. For the time being, PPP vice-chair Makhdom Amin Fahim is filling that void. However, Bhutto’s husband and current party co-chair Asif Zardari and their son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari both have ratings that make them among the most popular in the country.

∙ When asked who they would prefer to lead PPP until Bilawal Bhutto Zardari comes of age, 66 percent chose Makhdom Amin Fahim. Fahim was also the choice of 77 percent to be PPP’s candidate for prime minister.

∙ When asked if they liked or disliked various political personalities, 66 percent said they liked Makhdom Amim Fahim, 55 percent said they liked Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and 37 percent said they liked Zardari. Jailed lawyer Aitzaz Ahsan was liked by 37 percent as well, an increase of 24 percent since the last survey.

Previous IRI polls asked voters to choose the one person they believed could best handle the problems facing Pakistan. In the February survey, this question was open-ended in an attempt to ascertain which leaders were first and foremost in the minds of Pakistanis.

∙ Makhdom Amin Fahim led the field with 32 percent with Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Chair Nawaz Sharif coming in second at 23 percent. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (14 percent), Musharraf (eight percent), and former Chief Minister of Punjab Pervez Elahi (five percent) rounded out the top five.

∙ In a province-by-province match-up, Nawaz Sharif led the field in Punjab with 31 percent and Makhdom Amin Fahim was number one in Sindh with 57 percent. Nawaz Sharif led in the NWFP with 27 percent, while Bilawal (24 percent) and Makhdom Amin Fahim (20 percent) were first and second in Balochistan.

Elections

As mentioned before, Bhutto’s death greatly impacted the political landscape. Nowhere is that more apparent than in questions about the upcoming elections. Her PPP is currently benefiting from both a wave of sympathy as well as a backlash against the government. (more)

IRI Pakistan Index – Page Four

∙ Interest in the elections remains high. When asked if they were planning on voting, 90 percent of respondents said that they were either very or somewhat likely to vote.

∙ When asked if they supported the delay in the elections from its original date to February 18, Pakistanis were surprisingly split, with 51 percent saying that they supported the delay while 43 percent opposed.

∙ However, when they asked why they thought the elections had been delayed, 57 percent said that it was because Musharraf feared that Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) would not win, while 39 percent said that it was due to legitimate security concerns.

∙ When asked if they would support a postponement of the elections for up to one year, voters were overwhelmingly opposed: 85 percent said they would oppose such a postponement. The idea of President Musharraf resigning and the elections being held under a unity government had the support of 69 percent.

∙ When asked which party they would vote for, PPP topped the field, garnering 50 percent in the national sample. PML-N was second with 22 percent and PML-Q came in third with 14 percent.

∙ PPP’s wave carried through all of the provinces: in Punjab, PPP led with 44 percent, with PML-N in second at 32 percent and PML-Q a distant third with 19 percent; in Sindh, PPP far outdistanced the field with 74 percent; in NWFP, PPP led with 37 percent, PML-N came in second with 18 percent, and Awami National Party (ANP) in third with 12 percent; in Balochistan, PPP garnered 44 percent, with PML-Q a distant second with 15 percent.
∙ Regardless of the actual outcome, Pakistanis have already made up their minds that PML-Q should not win. When asked which party would win the most seats if the elections were free and fair, 58 percent responded PPP, 22 percent said PML-N and 13 percent said PML-Q. Further, when asked if they would think that the election was free and fair or rigged in the event that PML-Q was announce to have won the most seats, 79 percent said that they would think that the election was rigged. And when asked if they would support protests against the government in the event that PML-Q was announced as the winner, 55 percent replied yes, indicating a potential for post-election turmoil should that event occur.

The Next Government

IRI’s survey also probed different configurations of the next government. With a hung parliament (no party having a clear majority of seats) being a real possibility, it will likely require a partnership of two or more parties in order to form a ruling coalition. (more)

IRI Pakistan Index – Page Five

∙ When asked if they preferred the Mutehida Qaumi Movement (MQM) to remain partnered with PML-Q or join PPP and PML-N, 58 percent replied PPP/PML-N while 25 percent replied PML-Q.

∙ IRI’s poll also tested potential ruling coalition partnerships. When asked to choose their preference of three potential match-ups, a PML-Q/PML-N coalition received the support of nine percent, while PPP/PML-Q was the choice of 11 percent. Far out in front was a hypothetical PPP/PML-N ruling coalition, with 72 percent selecting it as their choice. PPP voters preferred the PML-N partnership with 89 percent; likewise, PML-N voters preferred the PPP partnership with 88 percent support; PML-Q voters preferred their party partner with PPP (51 percent) rather than PML-N (37 percent).

∙ When asked to choose their top choice for prime minister, 56 percent opted for PPP’s Makhdom Amin Fahim, while 15 percent chose PML-N’s Javed Hashmi and 12 percent supported PML-Q’s Pervez Elahi.

The Army

The Pakistan Army has long been the most respected institution in the country; in IRI’s first few polls its favorability rating was consistently at the 80 percent level. In the last poll, however, the Army’s rating dropped to 55 percent. In IRI’s February poll, the Army has rebounded somewhat to 65 percent.

When Pakistanis were asked if the performance of Musharraf affected their opinion of the Army, 57 percent said that Musharraf’s performance caused them to now have a lower opinion of the Army. This 57 percent represents an increase of 16 points since the last survey, when only 41 percent said that his actions had resulted in a lower opinion of the Army. The fact that the Army’s overall approval rating has risen by 10 points since the last survey could be a result of Musharraf’s resignation as Army Chief and the assumption of the role by General Pervez Kiyani. When asked if they liked or disliked various personalities, 25 percent said they liked the new Army Chief; this is an increase of 20 percent since the last survey.

Finally, respondents expressed a desire for the separation of military and state; 69 percent agreed that the Army should not play a role in civilian government.

Pakistan Judges Remain Under Arrest Before Election

New York, NY, USA, 9 February 2008 (InformPress.com) - The continueddetention of independent judges, the recent re-arrests of lawyers on spurious grounds and the large-scale induction of Pervez Musharraf's appointees into Pakistan's judiciary will have a serious impact on the credibility of the national elections scheduled for February 18, [2008], Human Rights Watch [HRW] said today.
Under Pakistani law, the Supreme Court is the final arbiter over any claims of election irregularities and controversies. Judicial review of the decisions of the Election Commission can be sought in the High Court and the Supreme Court of Pakistan.
"Days before Pakistan goes to the polls, its lawful Chief Justice [Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry] and his children remain under illegal house arrest, as do many lawyers who would likely challenge election-rigging in the courts," said Brad Adams, Asia Director at Human RightsWatch. "Musharraf's systematic destruction of legal institutions has seriously compromised the upcoming elections."
Since November 3, [2007], deposed Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, his family and five other Supreme Court justices who also refused to accept Musharraf's suspension of the Constitutionand declaration of a state of Emergency have remained under illegal house arrest. Judges at other levels of the judiciary were also deposed and repeatedly face arbitrary detention. Meanwhile, Musharraf has replaced dozens of arbitrarily fired judges with his own nominees.
Leaders of the lawyers' movement - including Supreme Court Bar Association [SCBA] President Aitzaz Ahsan, retired Justice Tariq Mehmood and former Bar Council Vice Chairman Ali Ahmed Kurd - were detained under the colonial-era Maintenance of Public Order Ordinance(MPO). They remain under house arrest. The Pakistani Constitution prohibits detention under the MPO for more than 90 days. The government released them on January 31 [2008] on expiry of that period, but arbitrarily re-arrested them 48 hours later under a fresh MPO order.
"The re-arrest of these lawyers is a disgrace and makes it clear that Musharraf is determined to ensure that many of his fiercest critics are locked up before the election," said Adams. "Musharraf must release the lawyers and judges immediately."
In 2007, the movement of lawyers and the growing independence of the nation's judiciary had made genuine progress in putting Pakistan back on the path to the rule of law and raised hopes for a free election, Human Rights Watch said. That ended when Musharraf announced his state of Emergency on November 3 [2007].
Under the revised Constitution, unilaterally imposed by Musharraf, the government now has powers to disbar lawyers involved in peaceful anti-government activities, and the military can now try civilians for awide range of offenses previously under the purview of the country's judiciary, including charges as vague as causing "public mischief."
Human Rights Watch noted that such a repressive political environment thwarts any possibility that elections, scheduled for February 18,[2008], could be free or fair.
"The government has warned it will not tolerate the 'politics of agitation'," said Adams. "Such restrictions are contrary to human rights law at the best of times and absolutely unacceptable in the middle of an election."
Rigging in successive elections by the Pakistani military has been well-documented. The emergence of an independent judiciary in Pakistan last year provided the best hope in decades for a fair election. But the dismantling of that judiciary shows Musharraf's bad faith in the months before these elections.
"A real election campaign is impossible when a country's military government deposes the legitimate judiciary, replaces lawful judgeswith its hand-picked supporters and keeps its chief critics under arrest," said Adams.
Human Rights Watch criticized the United States and the United Kingdom, which consider Musharraf an indispensable ally in the "war of terror," for failing to press for the restoration of the independent judiciary headed by Chief Justice Chaudhry. Both countries should urge the immediate release of all persons arbitrarily detained and a returnto genuine constitutional rule in Pakistan.
"In other parts of the world, the U.S. and UK wax eloquently about the need for an independent judiciary and pressure governments to respect this principle," said Adams. "Yet [U.S.] President [George W.] Bushand [UK] Prime Minister [Gordon] Brown seem to have a double standard where Musharraf is concerned."

Pakistan Judges Remain Under Arrest Before Election

New York, NY, USA, 9 February 2008 (InformPress.com) - The continueddetention of independent judges, the recent re-arrests of lawyers on spurious grounds and the large-scale induction of Pervez Musharraf's appointees into Pakistan's judiciary will have a serious impact on the credibility of the national elections scheduled for February 18, [2008], Human Rights Watch [HRW] said today.
Under Pakistani law, the Supreme Court is the final arbiter over any claims of election irregularities and controversies. Judicial review of the decisions of the Election Commission can be sought in the High Court and the Supreme Court of Pakistan.
"Days before Pakistan goes to the polls, its lawful Chief Justice [Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry] and his children remain under illegal house arrest, as do many lawyers who would likely challenge election-rigging in the courts," said Brad Adams, Asia Director at Human RightsWatch. "Musharraf's systematic destruction of legal institutions has seriously compromised the upcoming elections."
Since November 3, [2007], deposed Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, his family and five other Supreme Court justices who also refused to accept Musharraf's suspension of the Constitutionand declaration of a state of Emergency have remained under illegal house arrest. Judges at other levels of the judiciary were also deposed and repeatedly face arbitrary detention. Meanwhile, Musharraf has replaced dozens of arbitrarily fired judges with his own nominees.
Leaders of the lawyers' movement - including Supreme Court Bar Association [SCBA] President Aitzaz Ahsan, retired Justice Tariq Mehmood and former Bar Council Vice Chairman Ali Ahmed Kurd - were detained under the colonial-era Maintenance of Public Order Ordinance(MPO). They remain under house arrest. The Pakistani Constitution prohibits detention under the MPO for more than 90 days. The government released them on January 31 [2008] on expiry of that period, but arbitrarily re-arrested them 48 hours later under a fresh MPO order.
"The re-arrest of these lawyers is a disgrace and makes it clear that Musharraf is determined to ensure that many of his fiercest critics are locked up before the election," said Adams. "Musharraf must release the lawyers and judges immediately."
In 2007, the movement of lawyers and the growing independence of the nation's judiciary had made genuine progress in putting Pakistan back on the path to the rule of law and raised hopes for a free election, Human Rights Watch said. That ended when Musharraf announced his state of Emergency on November 3 [2007].
Under the revised Constitution, unilaterally imposed by Musharraf, the government now has powers to disbar lawyers involved in peaceful anti-government activities, and the military can now try civilians for awide range of offenses previously under the purview of the country's judiciary, including charges as vague as causing "public mischief."
Human Rights Watch noted that such a repressive political environment thwarts any possibility that elections, scheduled for February 18,[2008], could be free or fair.
"The government has warned it will not tolerate the 'politics of agitation'," said Adams. "Such restrictions are contrary to human rights law at the best of times and absolutely unacceptable in the middle of an election."
Rigging in successive elections by the Pakistani military has been well-documented. The emergence of an independent judiciary in Pakistan last year provided the best hope in decades for a fair election. But the dismantling of that judiciary shows Musharraf's bad faith in the months before these elections.
"A real election campaign is impossible when a country's military government deposes the legitimate judiciary, replaces lawful judgeswith its hand-picked supporters and keeps its chief critics under arrest," said Adams.
Human Rights Watch criticized the United States and the United Kingdom, which consider Musharraf an indispensable ally in the "war of terror," for failing to press for the restoration of the independent judiciary headed by Chief Justice Chaudhry. Both countries should urge the immediate release of all persons arbitrarily detained and a returnto genuine constitutional rule in Pakistan.
"In other parts of the world, the U.S. and UK wax eloquently about the need for an independent judiciary and pressure governments to respect this principle," said Adams. "Yet [U.S.] President [George W.] Bushand [UK] Prime Minister [Gordon] Brown seem to have a double standard where Musharraf is concerned."

Pakistan: Election Commission Not Impartial

Electoral Machinery Controlled by Musharraf Appointees

(New York, February 12, 2008) – The failure of Pakistan's Election Commission to act on allegations of irregularities means the electoral machinery for national elections due on February 18, 2008 cannot be considered impartial, Human Rights Watch said today. The structure of the commission, which has wide powers to investigate complaints and take action, also suggests it will not rule fairly in the election.

Since the official election period commenced in November 2007, the Election Commission of Pakistan has ignored allegations of widespread irregularities, including arrests and harassment of opposition candidates and party members, and the misuse of state resources, administration and state machinery to the advantage of candidates backed by President Pervez Musharraf.

"There have been numerous complaints of improper government assistance to the ruling party and illegal interference with opposition activities," said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. "But the election commission has done nothing significant to address these problems, raising serious questions about its impartiality."

Human Rights Watch said that the Election Commission has taken virtually no action on the widespread harassment of opposition candidates through the registration of police cases against them, police obstruction of opposition rallies, and the removal of lawful opposition banners and billboards.

Human Rights Watch has documented the involvement of the local administration in helping Musharraf-backed candidates, particularly in Punjab and Sindh provinces. For example:
In Lahore, the capital of Punjab province, the police have illegally put up banners and posters for the Musharraf-backed Pakistan Muslim League-(Q) (PML-Q) and torn down the electoral symbols of the opposition.
On December 10, 2007, a television cameraman in Gahno Khose, Sindh province, who filmed police providing illegal assistance to the district mayor, deputy mayor, town police officer, executive district officer and caretaker ministers during an electoral campaign told Human Rights Watch that the mayor's men snatched his camera and warned him against broadcasting the report. Police then threatened to lodge criminal cases against him. "I was afraid and informed my organization. They told me to keep quiet and took on the responsibility of talking to the concerned people," he said. "They didn't lodge [a criminal case] against me, but I am receiving further threats."
On December 26, 2007, police in Gujrat city, Punjab, prevented opposition Pakistan Muslim League-(N) (PML-N) candidates from preparing for a reception for their leader Nawaz Sharif, citing oral "orders from above." Municipal administration staff overnight removed PML-N banners around the city. Police prevented the PML-N's Gujrat youth wing from announcing Sharif's arrival, confiscated their loudspeakers and detained six activists for several hours. Chaudhry Mohammad Faraz, the PML-N general secretary in Gujrat, told Human Rights Watch, "Police blocked all roads leading to the venue to stop people from welcoming Nawaz Sharif, from Jalalpur Jattan, Fatehpur, Shadiwal, Kunja and Bhimber. People had to come on foot, one by one."
On the night of December 20, 2007, unknown persons fired upon the PML-N office set up in the residence of Muhammad Afzal at Mohallah Kaloo Pura, Gujrat, after an anonymous telephone call telling Afzal to close the office down. Police did not collect evidence or register a complaint.
In Thatta district, Sindh province, police have been obstructing the opposition Pakistan People's Party (PPP) by not giving security clearance to its candidates to hold public meetings. The PPP's Sassui Palijo, the only directly elected opposition party member in Thatta district, told Human Rights Watch that the administration has been interfering in their campaigns since the previous local bodies' elections. "Now they are doing it again. They remove flags, banners after our party workers put them up. … We tell the election commission everything and show them evidence every three days. But they have done nothing to help us at all so far." Palijo said that a PPP worker, Nawaz Ali Shah Qudusani, had to "go underground" after he went ahead with a rally that the local mayor had warned him against holding; police raided his house and arrested three people.
In its update of February 9, the Fair and Free Election Network (FAFEN), an independent coalition of nongovernmental organizations with observers in more than 260 districts around the country, said that one of the most frequent complaints they have received is of "police harassing candidates and/or workers of certain political parties by threatening that they will register cases against them. In addition, police are asking supporters and candidates of political parties who formed the opposition during the previous government to stop campaigning. In some cases, FAFEN observers reported that police had directly asked candidates and local government representatives to announce their support to the [Musharraf-backed] PML-Q." Observers from FAFEN have gathered reports of intimidation and harassment by the police or other security agency districts in all provinces.

Extensive government transfers and postings of judges and other officials across the country violate legal provisions banning postings and transfers after the announcement of the election schedule, which took place on November 20, 2007. The Election Commission has failed to stop or reverse transfers of district judges; the government has put in place judges who independent observers fear could compromise investigations into electoral malpractice. The government appointed 59 civil judges in early January across the North West Frontier Province. Eleven civil judges were transferred. As well as investigating complaints, district judges are also responsible for aggregating the vote count on polling day.

In addition, Human Rights Watch has records of at least 90 transfers of officials in Sindh province. After the announcement of the election schedule, several police officers were transferred across Sindh. Some were posted as station house officers (SHOs) to police stations of Kharipur district in Sindh. When the assistant election commissioner (AEC) in Jacobabad, Sindh, Liaquat Ali Afridi, refused to change polling procedures or reduce the number of polling stations from 259 to 226, he was transferred and replaced with Hisaam Soomro, a relative of the caretaker prime minister in Sindh.

Candidates have sent in more than 1,500 complaints of irregularities from around the country, few of which have been investigated. Even visible violations, like the use of electoral banners on government offices, have been ignored. The secretary of the Election Commission of Pakistan, Kunwar Dilshad, denied responsibility, telling Human Rights Watch that the commission, which is dependent on the district-level judiciary to investigate these complaints, is helpless to investigate or act if judges send no evidence.

The Election Commission's lack of independence and impartiality is among the crucial structural issues impeding free and fair elections. The president currently appoints the chief election commissioner and the other commission members. The election law requires members of the Election Commission, an ad hoc body, to be High Court judges; their part-time status in the Election Commission compromises their effectiveness. Two were appointed after Musharraf imposed a state of emergency on November 3, calling into question their impartiality. For example, Justice Ghulam Dastagir Shahani, a lawyer with no judicial experience, was appointed to the Sindh High Court on December 14 and to the Election Commission on January 5, by Musharraf, although more experienced judges were available. The current chief election commissioner, Qazi Muhammad Farooq, a retired Supreme Court judge, called his impartiality into question when he amended the rules of the presidential polls of October 2007 to allow Musharraf to contest the election while still army chief, in violation of a clear constitutional prohibition.

The Election Commission has ignored recommendations made by international observers, including the European Union, such as changing the method of appointment of the chief election commissioner and other members to ensure their impartiality. A key recommendation from international election monitors in past elections relates to the vote count aggregation and delays in announcement between results at polling stations and the final result. Problems identified in the past have included the provision of results at polling stations on unofficial papers. Transparency would be greatly improved if certified copies of each polling station result (compiled on form XVI) and aggregated results (compiled on form XVII) were made immediately available to the media, candidates, polling agents, and observers.

Under Pakistani law, the president cannot hold a party political affiliation and is obliged to be neutral in parliamentary elections. In the past, the presidency has been a largely ceremonial post and seen as "above" party politics. But, since taking power in a coup in 1999, Musharraf has radically changed the constitution to increase the powers of the presidency at the expense of parliamentary powers, at the same time creating and supporting a political party, thePML-Q, to serve his interests.

While Musharraf maintains that he has installed a neutral caretaker government to oversee elections, he has openly supported the PML-Q and its allied parties, and formed a caretaker government filled with PML-Q office-bearers and members. On December 17 Musharraf asked participants at a public meeting in Vehari town in southern Punjab to vote for parties that support him. Billboards in the central city of Lahore and elsewhere in Punjab province advertising development projects carry Musharraf's photograph as well as that of outgoing chief minister Parvaiz Elahi, Punjab, provincial president of the PML-Q.

Prime Minister Mianmohammad Soomro, Information and Broadcasting Minister Nisar Memon and Federal Minister for Inter-Provincial Coordination, Dr. Muhammad Amjad, are prominent members of the PML-Q. Roshan Khurshid Bharucha, another PML-Q member, is not only a minister in the Balochistan provincial caretaker government, but is also running as a candidate, violating election rules that prohibit members of the caretaker government at the national and provincial level from contesting elections.

"The Election Commission should be quickly investigating all credible allegations of electoral irregularities, whether they relate to violence or misuse of state resources," said Adams. "Instead of using its legal powers and moral authority to address these matters, the commission appears to be sitting on its hands."

AP Report on Charsadda blast and Islamabad battlefield

Video of the Sunday Battle in Islamabad

An eyewitness account of the brutalities at the isb protest

Sundas

"It's just a rock, I'm fine. Don't worry." I said to my friend standing next to me, blinking from the pain, as a broken piece of a brick hit me square in my shin. We were at the capital of our country, trying to reach the house of our Chief Justice held captive by a brutal dictator. The extent of his brutality, we were just beginning to get a taste of.

This was a procession of over 1500 lawyers, students, civil society members, gathered to protest against the blatant usurpation of our judicial institution, our media, as well as our fundamental rights. There were around 150 of us who had come from Lahore to join in today's protest. Marching on to the judge's enclave, we were chanting slogans, singing songs "na mera Pakistan hay, na tera Pakistan hay; yeh uska Pakistan hay jo sadr-e-pakistan hay…" [This not my Pakistan, this is not your Pakistan; this is that person's Pakistan, who calls himself the president of Pakistan…] followed by proclamations of our struggle to get our country back. "Freedom is ours, if you don't give it to us upon asking we will take it..." Wherever you looked, you saw people who had come together, united to fight for the collective good. Stating it was enough, we will no longer be silenced. We will no longer hold back, or bow our heads low.

What for many in Islamabad had become common at protests, for us from Lahore was a first. The treatment meted to us from the police in our city is worlds apart. The recognition that the police itself is oppressed and exploited is adamant amongst the students of Lahore. A suo moto notice had to be issued by a pco-judge in Lahore to get the police to arrest us-the students. The police here was something else.

I was towards the front of the procession, when we saw smoke, and ran backwards thinking it was tear gas. Soon we realized it was fire trucks positioned to hose down protestors with cold water in this chilly weather. They kept hitting us with cold, high pressure water in vain. When it became evident that we would keep going nevertheless, the police started shelling us with tear gas. Most of us smelled CS gas for the first time as we ran backwards experiencing its excruciating effects. A friend had held my hand and almost dragged me along as we ran backwards. Don't breathe. Don't fall. Don't stop. I kept repeating to myself as my throat, eyes, and nose lit on fire. I ran as far back as possible. The spoiled, protected and sheltered girl that I was, nothing even close to this viciousness had touched me before.

It was a surreal feeling as I stood on the very periphery, panting through my scratched throat and rubbing my burning eyes. This was only the beginning. I saw people coming back, drenched. Saw an Auntie who had fallen in a puddle. Saw a girl about my age screaming at the top of her lungs at the police meant to protect us, the people. I found myself craving to be up there, at the front, with my fellows, facing the onslaught. I did not come here as an audience to watch the show from the sidelines, a voice from deep within asserted. And I advanced. Whilst screaming GO MUSHARRAF GO at the top of my lungs. Who was where, who was who; nothing mattered.

While everyone was trying to regroup, some other girls and I started chanting louder than we had ever known our voices to reach, "LATHI GOLI KI SARKAAR, NAHI CHALAY GI NAHI CHALAY GI; YEH DEHSHET GARDI KI SARKAAR, NAHI CHALAY GI NAHI CHALAY GI" [this government of brute force and coercion, we do not accept we do not accept; this terrorist government, we do not accept we do not accept] and we marched. Amidst tear gas, amidst burning and itching throats, amidst pelting stones; nothing was going to stop us.

It was a battle field. It was us the people against them the colonizers—our military state. A broken piece of a brick hit me, I shrugged it off. A much bigger brick hit the girl next to me on her hip and left her limping for a while, she didn't stop. There were lawyers who would come in front of us whenever stones would be thrown our way. Yes, many of our serving police specifically targeted the women. We went on. There were students who would pick up the falling gas bombs spewing the poisonous gas, run to the police as close as possible and drop it back on them. Many would come back staggering almost falling from the effects of the gases, whom we would have to hold up and give salt to, and back they would go to do more. The police would retreat as tear gas bombs hit them, and the people would cheer and dance. Then many more would be thrown at us, and back to work for all of us. For over two hours the police could not advance on us.

As the situation intensified, so did our chants. "Musharraf ka jo yaar hay, ghaddar hay ghaddar hay; biknay ke liye jo tayyar hay, ghaddar hay ghaddar hay. YEH POLICE BHI GHADDAR HAY, YEH POLICE BHI GHADDAR HAY, YEH POLICE BHI GHADDAR HAY" [Whoever is a friend to Musharraf, is a traitor, is a traitor; whoever is a willing to sell out, is a traitor, is a traitor. This Police is traitor, this police is a traitor, this police is a traitor]. Ultimately the police stormed us. A certain police officer who was especially targeting women ran after me full force. I took cover inside a house to save myself. Never have I run so fast in my life. Many were beaten up, some had to be hospitalized. Today was more than just another protest. In the midst of raw emotions, hurt limbs and hoarse throats, the only thing that mattered was the wrong being done to us. Indignant, and offended at this treatment; our protest very much was for human dignity. And more than anything else, the sensitivity that this now offended dignity of ours cannot even compare to the years of torment and subhuman treatment that most of our people in this country have endured. Well no more. Passivity that translates into consent and complicity, never again!

Musharraf's Approval Rating Plummets

Poll Finds Opposition Parties Could Win Two-Thirds in Next Week's Parliamentary Vote
By Griff Witte and Robin Wright
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, February 11, 2008; A09

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Feb. 10 -- A week before Pakistanis vote in parliamentary elections, President Pervez Musharraf's popularity has hit an all-time low and opposition parties seem capable of a landslide victory that could jeopardize his efforts to cling to power, according to a poll to be released Monday.

The poll found that just 15 percent of Pakistanis approve of Musharraf's job performance, exactly half the number who expressed approval in November. The two main opposition parties, meanwhile, had the backing of a combined 72 percent of those surveyed.

If Musharraf's allies do not succeed in rigging the election results in their favor, such broad-based support could give the opposition enough seats in the new parliament for the two-thirds majority needed to impeach the president.

"If a coalition of revenge gets a two-thirds majority, he's done. Absolutely done," said C. Christine Fair, a senior political analyst at the Rand Corp. research institution.

The poll results are the latest in a series of troubling indicators for Musharraf. In recent months, he has suspended the constitution, fired many judges on the Supreme Court and engineered a legally dubious reelection in his quest to stay in power.

While the constitution has since been restored, Musharraf's repeated crackdowns against political opponents, the judiciary and the mass media have turned the public adamantly against him. A year ago, most Pakistanis supported him. Now, three-quarters say they want him to resign.

"I don't know if his numbers could go any lower," said Robert Varsalone, country director for the International Republican Institute, the nonprofit, U.S.-based organization that conducted the poll. "He's probably at his floor."

Varsalone and another staffer for the institute, which includes prominent Republicans on its board, were forced to leave Pakistan last week after the government failed to renew their visas. The group has released a series of polls charting Musharraf's decline and has come under intense government pressure as a result.

The poll of 3,845 adults was conducted Jan. 19-29 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.69 percentage points.

There are widespread fears in Pakistan that Musharraf and his allies will rig next Monday's vote. But the institute's poll indicated that that could be a perilous step. A majority of those surveyed said they would back protests against the government if Musharraf's party is announced as the winner. Only 14 percent said they planned to vote for the main pro-Musharraf party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Q.

Party spokesman Tariq Azim Khan conceded that it may lose seats next Monday but said Musharraf's allies would reap the benefits of incumbency and predicted that the PML-Q "will still be the single largest party" after the elections.

The institute's poll strongly indicates otherwise. The Pakistan People's Party, long led by Benazir Bhutto, appears to have gained substantial support since the former prime minister was assassinated in December. Half of those surveyed said they planned to vote for the PPP, with the next highest total, 22 percent, going to an opposition party led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

Such support could give the PPP and Sharif a powerful coalition, should they choose to work together against a president both have often condemned.

The institute's poll calls into question the belief of U.S. officials that the elections will produce a hung parliament, with power divided among the three major parties as well as a handful of smaller ethnic and religious parties. In an interview Friday, a senior U.S. intelligence official predicted that no two opposition parties would get the 66 percent necessary to impeach Musharraf or change the constitution.

Musharraf remains "very strong" and the "key political figure" in Pakistan, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The United States has steadfastly backed Musharraf over the past year, even as many Pakistanis have begun to look beyond him.

"Even before Benazir's assassination there was a strong and growing feeling that Musharraf had run his course," said Isobel Coleman of the Council on Foreign Relations. "People are generally fed up with him and with the state Pakistan is in right now."

In addition to his heavy-handed tactics, Musharraf has been hurt by rising inflation, electricity shortages and surging violence among Islamic extremists.

Musharraf is not the only one whose popularity has been damaged: Support in Pakistan for al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has fallen from 46 percent in August to 24 percent now, according to a separate poll released Sunday.

The survey, conducted by the U.S.-based nonprofit group Terror Free Tomorrow, found that the Taliban has experienced a similar drop, with support at 19 percent, half of what it was last summer.

Islamic extremists have dramatically escalated their campaign of terrorism over the past six months, and there are deep concerns in Pakistan that the violence could worsen ahead of next week's vote.

Wright reported from Washington.